Reading TXNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TXNM free→Reading TXNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TXNM free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is low. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, TXNM is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $57 TXNM trades at 25× p/e — 1.3× the 19× p/e peer median, and above its own 19× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $45 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.49 (-2.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$19.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$47.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $410.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Approval would show TNMP can recover costs. It would help growth in Texas.
Confirms:The PUCT approves TNMP's comprehensive rate settlement filed on May 29, 2026.
Disproves:The PUCT rejects or delays the approval of TNMP's rate settlement.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TXNM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, TXNM Energy, Inc., Public Service Company of New Mexico, and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (collectively, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The Company's press release and other communications from time to time may include certain financial measures that are…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TXNM TXNM Energy | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | full | low |
SO Southern Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.
Execute the updated 2026-2030 capital investment plan totaling $10.2 billion to enhance infrastructure and support growth.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support ongoing and future investments.
Continue to grow dividends to provide consistent returns to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operational efficiency to drive revenue growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if TXNM Energy is increasing revenue and cash flow as planned.
Confirms:Q2 earnings show revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends above $0.4225 shows TXNM cares about giving cash to shareholders. This shows it is financially healthy.
Confirms:Dividend per share increases above $0.4225.
Disproves:Dividend per share remains at or below $0.4225.
Why it matters: If successful, service reliability will get better. This will help TXNM grow.
Confirms:The NMPRC approves PNM's grid modernization plan. It includes a revenue requirement of $7 million.
Disproves:The NMPRC rejects or delays approval of PNM's grid modernization plan.
Why it matters: The IRP will shape PNM's long-term energy strategy and impact TXNM's growth.
Confirms one read:PNM files its 2026 IRP with the NMPRC on or before September 1, 2026.
Confirms the other:PNM delays the filing of its 2026 IRP beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: Cash flow growth above $153.2M means TXNM is getting better at running its business. This could make it financially stronger.
Confirms:Cash from operations was above $153.2M.
Disproves:Cash from operations was below $153.2M.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 25, 2026, the Compensation and Human Capital Committee (the “Compensation Committee”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of TXNM Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) approved certain compensatory arrangements in which the Company’s named executive officers participate and also recommended that the full Board approve certain other compensat…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 27, 2026, TXNM Energy, Inc., Public Service Company of New Mexico, and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (collectively, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results of operations for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The Company's press release and other communications from time to time may include certain financial…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 3, 2026, TXNM Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Distribution Agreement (the “Distribution Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc. and Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. (each, a “Sales Agent” and collectively, the “Sales Agents”) and Bank of America, N.A., MUFG Securities EMEA plc and The Bank of Nova Scotia, as Forward Purchasers (each, a “Forward Purchaser” and collectively, the “Forward Purchasers”), pursua…