Reading LNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LNT free→Reading LNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LNT free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and its capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, with LNT priced roughly in line with peers, though recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If LNT cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 LNT trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $68 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $73–$81. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.70 → $0.69 (-1.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$69.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$155.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $701.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, the confidence label changed to medium, indicating a decrease in confidence. Earnings quality fell, reflecting a fragile state, while risk remained low. The sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current environment. The management score is stable, indicating consistent leadership.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into financial health and future outlook. It can shift investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows results that are better than expected. It also confirms guidance.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows results that are worse than expected. It also lowers guidance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Alliant Energy Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$73.00 – $81.00 (median $76.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LNT Alliant Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | low |
SO Southern Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Alliant Energy continues to reaffirm its EPS guidance for 2026, maintaining a range of $3.36 to $3.46.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS would show strong momentum towards the full-year guidance.
Confirms:Q2 ongoing EPS reported at $0.85 or higher.
Disproves:Q2 ongoing EPS reported below $0.85.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could boost Alliant Energy's performance. It shows a healthier market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This agreement is key to Alliant's growth strategy and reflects customer demand.
Confirms:A press release will confirm the 370 MW electric service deal.
Disproves:There is no news on the electric service deal.
Why it matters: A big drop would mean customers are buying less. This would hurt earnings.
Confirms:Q2 retail electric and gas sales decline more than 5% year over year.
Disproves:Retail electric and gas sales decline less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More spending may show plans for strong growth. This could affect future earnings.
Confirms:Capital spending for 2026 is over $3.2 billion.
Disproves:Capital spending is below $3.2 billion.
Why it matters: Changes may show shifts in how the company operates or market trends.
Confirms one read:Management reaffirms the ongoing EPS guidance range of $3.36 - $3.46.
Confirms the other:Management lowers the ongoing EPS guidance range below $3.36.
Why it matters: New agreements show that demand for data centers is still growing. This supports revenue.
Confirms:Announcement of at least one new electric service agreement for over 100 MW.
Disproves:No new electric service agreements announced in the next quarter.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 19, 2026, Alliant Energy Corporation (the “Company”), entered into a distribution agreement (the “Distribution Agreement”) with Barclays Capital Inc., BofA Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Mizuho Securities USA LLC, MUFG Securities Americas Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as agents (the “Agents” and each, an “Agent”), and Barclays Bank PLC, B…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 2, 2026, Alliant Energy Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a term loan credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among the Company, U.S. Bank National Association, as Administrative Agent, and the several lenders party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides for a $400 million term loan facility. The Credit Agreement also provides for an incremental term loan facility of up to $100 million. No lender has any obligation to provide incre…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included or incorporated by reference in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Alliant Energy Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.