Reading ES? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ES free→Eversource Energy (ES)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$69.28+0.86%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, ES is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If ES reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Electric
- Market cap
- $25.83B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$99.93consensus
Range $83.83 – $111.21
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$97.29consensus
Range $88.03 – $103.56
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $69 ES trades at 14× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $100 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $72–$80. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.9x
peer 20.5x · own history 14.4x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-31%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$99.93
range $83.83 – $111.87
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
81st pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
75th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised +5.2% / 30d, n=9for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.94 (+5.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/data-center-power.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,513.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for confirmation of 2026 EPS guidance range
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows confidence in financial results. This is true even with regulatory issues.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Eversource confirms 2026 non-GAAP recurring EPS guidance of $4.57 to $4.72 per share.
Disproves:Eversource revises down its 2026 EPS guidance below $4.57 per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-134d agoYahoo! Finance
Regulatory changes could impact EPS guidance.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If ES reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-05-06), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ES and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting ES and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ES beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +6% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping ES and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On May 6, 2026, Eversource Energy (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing its unaudited results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and related financial information for certain of its subsidiaries as of and for the same period. A copy of the news release and related unaudited financial reports are attached as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and are incorporated herein by reference thereto. The information contained in this…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.