Reading EVRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVRG free→Reading EVRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVRG free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, EVRG is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If EVRG cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $83 EVRG trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $81 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $82–$99. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.91 (+2.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$72.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$147.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $731.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The EPS guidance shows Evergy can meet its financial goals. This helps investor confidence.
Confirms:Evergy reports adjusted EPS for 2026 within the range of $4.14 to $4.34.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS is below $4.14. This suggests possible financial problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EVRG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Evergy issued a press release announcing its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The press release contains information regarding Evergy Kansas Central and Evergy Metro. Accordingly, information in the press release relating to Evergy Kansas Central and Evergy Metro is also being furnished on behalf of Evergy Kansas Central and Evergy Metro. The information un…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$82.00 – $99.00 (median $88.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EVRG Evergy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | low |
SO Southern Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management continues to reaffirm its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.14 to $4.34.
Management emphasizes the importance of delivering against financial targets.
Why it matters: Keeping the EPS guidance shows that management believes they can meet financial goals.
Confirms:Management confirms the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.14 to $4.34 during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to less than $4.14.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would raise concerns about financial health and growth prospects.
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report shows results below what analysts expected.
Disproves:The Q2 earnings are better than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs can make Evergy's service less appealing to big customers.
Confirms one read:New large load power service tariffs are approved. They help make services more affordable.
Confirms the other:There are rejections or delays in starting new large load power service tariffs.
Why it matters: Weather affects energy demand. Poor weather could hurt earnings and growth outlook.
Confirms:The earnings report shows bad weather hurt results a lot.
Disproves:The earnings report shows weather did not affect results much.
Why it matters: New agreements can increase revenue. This helps growth and affects overall financial health.
Confirms:Revenue from new large customer agreements exceeds $10 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue from new large customer agreements is less than $5 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Evergy.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows a year-over-year increase above 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still under 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: New agreements can boost revenue and support growth. This is key for Evergy's strategy.
Confirms:Evergy has made more deals for electric service with large customers.
Disproves:No new large customer agreements are announced in the next quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 19, 2026, Evergy issued a press release announcing its results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The press release contains information regarding Evergy Kansas Central and Evergy Metro. Accordingly, information in the press release relating to Evergy Kansas Central and Evergy Metro is also being furnished on behalf of Evergy Kansas Central and Evergy Metro. The info…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026, Evergy, Inc. (“Evergy”) entered into a $500 million unsecured Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “Term Loan Facility”) with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto. The Term Loan Facility will expire on February 10, 2027. Evergy expects the proceeds of the borrowings under the Term Loan Facility to be used for, among other things, working capital, capital expenditures, permitt…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026, concurrently with the execution of the Term Loan Facility described in