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Constellation Energy (CEG)
NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$262.35+3.39%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Independent Power Producers
- Market cap
- $94.31B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2022-02-25
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $262.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$253.20consensus
Range $227.81 – $268.35
vs price: +6% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$435.49consensus
Range $375.65 – $546.03
vs price: -38% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $262 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $272 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $310–$441. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
26.4x
peer 20.5x · own history 30.3x
Premium
1.3x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast 25%
Our fair value
$272.41
range $228.64 – $288.74
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
90th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
8th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish10 analysts, 86% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.53 → $2.57 (+1.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.1% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$466.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,987.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for 2026 EPS guidance during the March 31 call
Why it matters: The 2026 EPS guidance will show how management plans to grow earnings after the Calpine acquisition.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management expects 2026 EPS to be over $9.39 per share.
Disproves:Management issues 2026 EPS guidance below $9.39 per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-133d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Expand renewable energy projects
Upgrade enhances renewable energy project capabilities.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CEG and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like VST, NRG, and TLN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting CEG and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CEG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CEG cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VST, NRG, and TLN start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping CEG and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On June 1, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with the selling shareholders named in Schedule I thereto (the “Selling Shareholders”) and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (collectively, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Selling Shareholders agreed to sell to the Underwriters, and the Underwriters agreed to purchase from the Selling Shareholders, 11,000,000 shar…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.