Constellation Energy (CEG)

NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$271.37-1.32%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Constellation Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.27 → 13.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income from Calpine integration reaches $2.33B in Q1 2026	The company is integrating Calpine well, raising operating income from $451M to $2.33B in one year.	Under Pressure	Operating income from integration falls below $2.33B in Q1 2026	Operating income: $580M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2332.0 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026580,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e755f4a4-2b09-43c0-a980-8afdbc5c5ff3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The acquisition of Calpine was completed on January 7, 2026 for approximately $22 billion, expanding Constellation's generation portfolio to about 28 GW. Management has consistently emphasized integration and value capture from Calpine, and the financials show increased revenues and operating income post-acquisition, indicating delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS of $11.0 to $12.0 per share in 2026	A primary condition in Constellation Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=11.0 USD_PER_SHARE.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $11.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.42 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.0 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261.42 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e755f4a4-2b09-43c0-a980-8afdbc5c5ff3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management initiated 2026 EPS guidance at $11.00 - $12.00 per share in 2025-Q4, affirmed it in 2026-Q1, and raised it to $11.50 - $12.50 in 2026-Q2. This aligns with financial results showing adjusted operating earnings growth from $9.39 in 2025 to a midpoint guidance of $12.0 in 2026, indicating management is delivering on this guidance commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expansion of renewable energy projects including nuclear power deals	It is expanding renewable energy projects with long-term nuclear deals.	Intact	Renewable energy project expansion stalls or reverses in next 4 quarters	Qualitative: 3.6 GW deal signed vs target of continued expansion CEG signed a 3.6 GW nuclear power deal with Google in October 2026, strongly reinforcing the renewable expansion thesis. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management commissioned the 105 MW Pastoria Solar Project and announced a 920 MW increase in long-term clean energy PPAs in 2026-Q1 and Q2 respectively. These concrete project milestones and contract signings demonstrate delivering progress on expanding renewable energy projects. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.31

$13.58 → $13.31 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$34.42B

$35.60B → $34.42B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.58	$35,604,052,210	21 / 14
2026-07-25	$13.58	$35,604,052,210	21 / 14
2026-07-26	$13.58	$35,604,052,210	21 / 14
2026-07-27	$13.58	$35,604,052,210	21 / 14
2026-07-28	$13.56	$34,521,647,981	13 / 10
2026-07-29	$13.60	$35,604,052,210	21 / 14
2026-07-30	$13.34	$34,317,068,554	13 / 10
2026-07-31	$13.38	$35,503,579,500	21 / 14
2026-08-01	$13.38	$35,503,579,500	21 / 14
2026-08-02	$13.38	$35,503,579,500	21 / 14
2026-08-03	$13.34	$34,576,316,646	13 / 10
2026-08-04	$13.34	$34,576,316,646	13 / 10
2026-08-05	$13.34	$34,576,316,646	13 / 10
2026-08-06	$13.34	$34,576,316,646	13 / 10
2026-08-07	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	13 / 9
2026-08-08	$13.31	$35,170,160,970	21 / 13
2026-08-09	$13.31	$35,170,160,970	21 / 13
2026-08-10	$13.31	$35,170,160,970	21 / 13
2026-08-11	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	13 / 9
2026-08-12	$13.32	$35,120,468,670	21 / 13
2026-08-13	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	13 / 9
2026-08-14	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	13 / 9
2026-08-15	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	13 / 9
2026-08-16	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	13 / 9
2026-08-17	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	13 / 9
2026-08-18	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	12 / 9
2026-08-19	$13.26	$34,473,459,009	12 / 9
2026-08-20	$13.23	$34,329,067,202	12 / 9
2026-08-21	$13.23	$34,329,067,202	12 / 9
2026-08-22	$13.23	$34,329,067,202	12 / 9
2026-08-23	$13.21	$34,270,706,126	12 / 9
2026-08-24	$13.21	$34,270,706,126	12 / 8
2026-08-25	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-08-26	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-08-27	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-08-28	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-08-29	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-08-30	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-08-31	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-09-01	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	12 / 8
2026-09-02	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-03	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-04	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-05	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-06	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-07	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-08	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-09	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-10	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-11	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-12	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-13	$13.27	$34,288,239,462	11 / 8
2026-09-14	$13.27	$34,288,239,462	11 / 8
2026-09-15	$13.27	$34,288,239,462	11 / 8
2026-09-16	$13.27	$34,288,239,459	11 / 8
2026-09-17	$13.27	$34,288,219,460	11 / 8
2026-09-18	$13.27	$34,288,219,460	11 / 8
2026-09-19	$13.31	$34,318,362,057	11 / 8
2026-09-20	$13.31	$34,318,362,057	11 / 8
2026-09-21	$13.31	$34,318,362,057	11 / 8
2026-09-22	$13.31	$34,318,362,057	11 / 8
2026-09-23	$13.31	$34,422,316,490	11 / 8
2026-09-24	$13.31	$34,422,316,490	11 / 8
2026-09-25	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-09-27	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-09-28	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-09-29	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-09-30	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-01	$13.31	$34,422,320,086	11 / 8
2026-10-02	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-03	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-04	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-05	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-06	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-07	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-08	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-09	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-10	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$13.31	$34,422,316,493	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$13.31	$34,422,316,490	11 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	3	1
2026-06-01	20	3	0
2026-07-01	20	3	0
2026-08-01	20	3	0
2026-09-01	19	3	0
2026-10-01	19	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 2 · prior Aug 7

$379.00 → $350.00-7.7%

Morgan StanleySep 18 · prior Jul 22

$366.00 → $369.00+0.8%

$0$208.45$416.90

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income from Calpine integration reaches $2.33B in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
EPS of $11.0 to $12.0 per share in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Constellation Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on integrating recent acquisitions and expanding renewable energy projects. The current thesis state is intact, but management's volatility and elevated risks create uncertainty.

What's priced into Constellation Energy

The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation, reflecting weak execution quality and a premium compared to peers. There is a modest expectations gap, indicating that some positive performance is anticipated but not fully realized.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, given the mixed results from management's priorities and the fragile earnings quality. The low probability of missing guidance suggests stability, but recent history shows potential for volatility.

What Constellation Energy hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully integrate the Calpine acquisition and affirm earnings guidance without significant cuts. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and performance of sector peers will be critical.