Reading EXC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXC free→Reading EXC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXC free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If EXC cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 EXC trades at 17× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $58 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $41–$55. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.44x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.48 (-2.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$184.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,374.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show Exelon's financial health and ability to meet goals.
Confirms one read:Exelon expects adjusted operating earnings to be more than $0.91 per share for Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Exelon expects adjusted operating earnings to be less than $0.91 per share for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EXC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$41.00 – $55.00 (median $49.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electric Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXC Exelon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | low |
SO Southern Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | low |
DUK Duke Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
CEG Constellation Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | elevated |
AEP American Electric Power | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Exelon aims to achieve its 2026 EPS guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share.
Exelon plans to invest $41.7 billion in capital expenditures over the next four years.
Exelon aims for EPS growth near the top end of a 5-7% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2029.
Why it matters: This report will reveal if the earnings miss trend continues or improves.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better results than what was expected before.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows another miss or negative guidance.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong financial health. It also shows growth potential.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted operating earnings per share were at or above $2.81.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted operating earnings per share were below $2.81.
Why it matters: Challenges in the sector may impact Exelon's revenue growth. Knowing this helps assess performance.
Confirms:Exelon reports revenue growth below 5% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Exelon reports revenue growth above 5% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on this plan show Exelon's focus on infrastructure and growth. It affects future earnings.
Confirms:Exelon shares news on progress with projects from the $41.7 billion plan.
Disproves:Exelon delays or cuts planned spending by a lot.
Why it matters: Updates on this capital plan signal Exelon's commitment to infrastructure and growth. It shows how they plan to meet future energy demands.
Confirms:They shared details about projects in the $41.7 billion CAPEX plan.
Disproves:There are no updates or delays in the capital plan.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if EPS growth is on track with the 5-7% CAGR target. This affects future outlook.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows EPS growth near or at the top end of the 5-7% CAGR.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows EPS growth below the 5% mark.
Why it matters: The outcome of these filings affects customer rates and company revenue. It shows how Exelon balances customer needs with financial health.
Confirms one read:PECO files for new rates that increase revenue without raising customer bills.
Confirms the other:PECO's rate review filings are rejected or delayed. This affects revenue growth.
Why it matters: Affirming EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings. It can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Management confirms full year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91 in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management revises EPS guidance below $2.81 in the next earnings call.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 20, 2026, Exelon Corporation (the “Company”) issued and sold $775 million in aggregate principal amount of its 4.950% Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). See
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation On February 20, the Company issued and sold $775 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes. The Notes were issued under an indenture, dated as of June 11, 2015 (the “Base Indenture”), between the Company and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as trustee, as amended and supplemented by the Ninth Supplemental Indenture, dated as of February 1, 2026 (the “Ninth Supplemental Indenture”). The Base Indenture is filed as Exhibit 4.1 to…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 10, 2025, Exelon Corporation (“Exelon”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K to report the appointment of David DeWalt to the Board of Directors (“Board”) effective as of that date. At the time of that filing, the Exelon Board had not yet determined on which committees Mr. DeWalt would be appointed to serve. This Form 8-K/A is being filed to…