Exelon (EXC)

NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$43.50+2.40%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Exelon’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.04 → 3.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest $41.7 billion in capital expenditures over next four years	Exelon plans to invest $41.7 billion over four years to improve infrastructure.	Intact	CAPEX plan falls materially below $41.7 billion over four years	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management projected capital expenditures of $41.3 billion in 2025-Q4, revised to $41.7 billion by 2026-Q2, supporting expected rate base growth of 7.9%. The capital plan is progressing with consistent reaffirmation, indicating delivery on the stated investment strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS growth near top end of 5-7% CAGR from 2025 to 2029	A supporting condition in Exelon's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% CAGR EPS growth.	Intact	EPS CAGR falls below 5% over 2025-2029	Diluted EPS growth: 0% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% CAGR EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS in range $2.81-$2.91 for 2026	A primary condition in Exelon's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.81 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.81 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.81 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management affirmed the 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance range of $2.81 to $2.91 per share consistently from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Adjusted operating earnings per share were $0.91 in 2026-Q1 and $0.43 in 2026-Q2, supporting the full-year guidance. The trajectory is delivering as management has maintained guidance and reported results in line with expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage regulatory risks including Maryland FERC complaint	A supporting condition in Exelon's published investment case. The stated target is No material adverse regulatory rulings impacting earnings.	Under Pressure	Material negative regulatory ruling reduces earnings guidance	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.04

$3.04 → $3.04 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$26.18B

$26.21B → $26.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.04	$26,209,020,180	20 / 15
2026-07-25	$3.04	$26,209,020,180	20 / 15
2026-07-26	$3.04	$26,221,768,450	21 / 16
2026-07-27	$3.04	$26,221,768,450	21 / 16
2026-07-28	$3.04	$26,030,965,650	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$3.04	$26,221,768,450	20 / 16
2026-07-30	$3.04	$26,033,154,677	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$3.04	$26,223,830,950	20 / 16
2026-08-01	$3.04	$26,033,154,677	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$3.04	$26,241,456,390	20 / 16
2026-08-03	$3.04	$26,241,456,390	20 / 16
2026-08-04	$3.04	$26,241,456,390	20 / 16
2026-08-05	$3.04	$26,241,456,390	20 / 16
2026-08-06	$3.04	$26,241,456,390	20 / 16
2026-08-07	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-08	$3.03	$26,198,950,140	20 / 16
2026-08-09	$3.03	$26,198,950,140	20 / 16
2026-08-10	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-11	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-15	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-16	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-17	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-18	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-19	$3.04	$26,051,955,337	12 / 12
2026-08-20	$3.04	$26,131,546,799	12 / 11
2026-08-21	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-22	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-23	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-24	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-25	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-26	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-27	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-28	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-29	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-30	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-08-31	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-01	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-02	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-03	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-04	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-05	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-06	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	11 / 11
2026-09-07	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	11 / 11
2026-09-08	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	11 / 11
2026-09-09	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	11 / 11
2026-09-10	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	11 / 11
2026-09-11	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	11 / 11
2026-09-12	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-13	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-14	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-15	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-16	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-17	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-18	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-19	$3.04	$26,169,292,269	12 / 11
2026-09-20	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-21	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-22	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-23	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-24	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-25	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-26	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-27	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-28	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-29	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-09-30	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-01	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-02	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-03	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-04	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-05	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-06	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-07	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-08	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-09	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-10	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-11	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-12	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-13	$3.04	$26,180,735,310	12 / 11
2026-10-14	$3.04	$26,180,735,957	12 / 11
2026-10-15	$3.04	$26,180,735,957	12 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	16	2
2026-06-01	4	16	2
2026-07-01	4	16	2
2026-08-01	4	16	2
2026-09-01	5	15	2
2026-10-01	5	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Argus ResearchSep 22

$49.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 18 · prior Apr 21

$55.00 → $50.00-9.1%

$0$30.25$60.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest $41.7 billion in capital expenditures over next four yearsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS growth near top end of 5-7% CAGR from 2025 to 2029Diluted EPS growth: 0%
Achieve EPS in range $2.81-$2.91 for 2026Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share
Manage regulatory risks including Maryland FERC complaintPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Exelon outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a utility company with a mixed performance outlook. The current thesis is cautious, as recent financial results have been weak, but the stock is considered cheap compared to peers.

What's priced into Exelon

The market appears to be pricing in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality. The valuation is considered cheap relative to peers, indicating that some negative expectations may already be reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to recent weak financial performance. However, management has consistently reaffirmed earnings guidance, which could stabilize expectations if met.

What Exelon hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could benefit utility stocks. Additionally, if EXC maintains its earnings guidance and sector peers show strong performance, it could help improve sentiment.