NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Eversource aims for 2026 EPS between $4.57 and $4.72. They sold Aquarion Water for $2.4 billion to cut debt. The company plans $26.5 billion investments by 2030 to improve service and clean energy. They fight to raise transmission returns after a FERC cut.
Regulatory challenges may cut earnings and slow growth. EPS guidance was lowered recently. Rate increases and payment issues could hurt revenue. Cybersecurity incidents and debt raise risks.
The price is about 2% above our fair value near $73. Analysts expect almost no revenue growth. Our view sees modest growth but risks from regulation and guidance cuts.
Breaks if: Net proceeds used for debt fall below $1.7 billion
Complete sale of Aquarion Water Company to strengthen balance sheet and focus on core regulated electric and natural gas operations.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a long-term thesis focused on a utility company with a commitment to growth and strategic divestitures. The current state reflects mixed signals due to recent earnings misses and sector headwinds.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, suggesting that expectations are modest. ES is seen as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap.
Management has reaffirmed its earnings guidance for 2026, indicating a commitment to long-term growth despite recent financial performance slipping. The company is also working on strengthening its balance sheet through strategic asset sales.
The thesis hinges on the ability of management to maintain earnings guidance and execute on their investment plan. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK will be crucial in determining the overall sector momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company maintained its EPS guidance for 2026. This supports the outlook for growth. However, weaker Q2 results may hinder the investment plan. The drop in income impacts regulatory efforts to restore transmission ROE.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. The sale of Aquarion Water Company closed in 2026-Q2 for $2.4 billion cash, with net equity proceeds of approximately $1.7 billion used to reduce debt, strengthening the balance sheet. The transaction caused a non-cash after-tax charge of $111.4 million in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized this divestiture as a key strategic move to focus on core regulated operations, showing delivery on this commitment.
“We completed our strategic divestiture of Aquarion Water, further strengthening our balance sheet.”
“Following the FERC order and potential Aquarion sale, we revised earnings guidance reflecting absence of Aquarion earnings.”
Breaks if: Investment plan falls short of $26.5 billion by 2030
Implement the increased $26.5 billion capital investment plan over 2026-2030 to support safe, reliable service and clean energy objectives.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management announced a $26.5 billion five-year capital investment plan for 2026-2030, up $2.3 billion from prior plans, focusing on electric and natural gas distribution investments to support safe, reliable service and clean energy objectives. As this is a recent announcement, no multi-quarter delivery data is yet available.
“Eversource released its new five-year $26.5 billion investment plan for 2026 to 2030, increased from prior plans.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.57 in FY26
Reaffirm 2026 non-GAAP recurring earnings guidance between $4.57 and $4.72 per share and long-term EPS growth of 5-7% through 2030.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 non-GAAP recurring EPS guidance narrowed from $4.80-$4.95 per share in 2025-Q4 to $4.57-$4.72 per share in 2026-Q2, reflecting impacts of regulatory and divestiture events. The company maintains its long-term EPS growth target of 5-7% through 2030. The trajectory shows consistent reaffirmation with downward revision in near-term guidance due to external factors but steady long-term growth commitment.
“The Company reaffirms its revised earnings guidance for 2026 non-GAAP recurring earnings of between $4.57 per share and $4.72 per share.”
“The Company revised its earnings guidance for 2026 non-GAAP recurring earnings to between $4.57 per share and $4.72 per share.”
“The Company expects 2026 earnings between $4.80 and $4.95 per share and cumulative long-term EPS growth of 5 to 7 percent through 2030.”
Breaks if: ROE remains at or below 9.57% beyond 2026
Vigorously pursue regulatory and legal actions to address the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's reduction of transmission return on equity (ROE).
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management has emphasized pursuing regulatory actions to counter FERC's reduction of transmission ROE from 10.57% to 9.57%, which caused a $43.9 million after-tax charge in 2026-Q1. Transmission earnings declined from $224.3 million in 2026-Q1 to $183.7 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting this impact. Management continues to invest in transmission despite regulatory challenges, showing ongoing focus but limited near-term financial recovery.
“The FERC ROE refund charge reduced transmission earnings; we continue to invest in transmission despite this.”
“We were very disappointed with FERC's arbitrary and flawed ROE reduction and will continue to pursue all actions against punitive decisions.”
In the next 1-3 years, ES's performance will depend on management execution and sector trends. Not investment advice.
