TXNM Energy (TXNM)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-23

$58.27-0.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TXNM Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	585.88M
EPS	—	0.36
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.38B
EPS	—	2.927
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.48B
EPS	—	3.27

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure in H2 2026	The company aims to finish its Blackstone acquisition in 2026.	Improving	Acquisition fails or is delayed beyond 2026	Qualitative: Merger revised with $300M benefits (Sep 15) TXNM and Blackstone revised merger terms to include $300M benefits, advancing the deal despite regulatory scrutiny. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters with an additional mention in a July 2026 8-K exhibit. TXNM Energy has extended the merger agreement termination date to May 31, 2027, pending regulatory approvals including NMPRC and Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The transaction closing is anticipated in the first half of 2027, reflecting ongoing regulatory review. The trajectory shows persistent focus with timing pushed out but consistent commitment to closing. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Execute $10.2 billion capital investment plan for 2026-2030	TXNM plans a $10.2 billion investment to improve infrastructure.	Intact	Total capital investment falls below $10 billion by 2030	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters. TXNM Energy updated its capital investment plan to $10.2 billion for 2026-2030, supporting grid modernization and clean energy. The plan is reiterated with ongoing investments reported, indicating consistent execution focus. The trajectory is delivering as the company continues to invest in infrastructure aligned with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve cash flow from operations to support investments	A supporting condition in TXNM Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >= $153 million per quarter.	Intact	Cash flow from operations falls below $140 million per quarter	Cash from operations: $69.831M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $153 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202669,831,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend growth with quarterly increases	A primary condition in TXNM Energy's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.42 per quarter.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.40 per quarter	Dividend per share: $0.42 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.42 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.4225 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fbe5b5ba-ff25-43a8-a126-f31ee4c4aced. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters. TXNM Energy increased dividends per share from $0.4075 in 2025-Q3 to $0.4225 in 2026-Q2, demonstrating sustained dividend growth. The trajectory matches management's commitment to maintaining and growing dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.25 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-25	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-28	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-31	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	$3.25	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	$3.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	5
2026-06-01	1	5
2026-07-01	1	5
2026-08-01	1	5
2026-09-01	1	4
2026-10-01	1	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $10.2 billion capital investment plan for 2026-2030Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve cash flow from operations to support investmentsCash from operations: $69.831M
Maintain dividend growth with quarterly increasesDividend per share: $0.42 per share

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-5.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TXNM Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a utility business with a long-term thesis tied to grid investment, dividend growth, and a pending acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure. The thesis is mixed: business momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains weak and the merger is still awaiting approvals.

What's priced into TXNM Energy

The evidence labels valuation as expensive, despite also describing TXNM as cheap versus peers, so the peer comparison and overall valuation signal conflict. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility and an expectations gap of -0.08; the evidence does not spell out exactly what growth expectations are embedded.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management continues to prioritize a $10.2 billion capital plan for 2026-2030, and the dividend has increased across the reported quarters. Near-term performance is less reassuring: recent results are weak, and the company has missed in recent quarters as earnings surprises have trended down, though the stated miss probability is low.

What TXNM Energy hinges on

The acquisition’s timing depends on regulatory approvals, including NMPRC and Nuclear Regulatory Commission review; closing is anticipated in the first half of 2027, and the agreement now runs through May 31, 2027. Over the near term, Federal Reserve rate cuts and results from utility peers could support or weaken the sector backdrop, while delivery of the capital plan and continued dividend growth matter to the multi-year thesis.