Reading TWST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TWST free→Reading TWST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TWST free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TWST is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $80.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $81, TWST's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 12× p/s (3.0× the 4× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~45% near-term growth vs our ~18% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $56 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $55–$90. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 45% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.68x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.16. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$318.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$648.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,824.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it may help Twist Bioscience. This could improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth is speeding up again. It may reach 10% or more.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth continues to slow below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Launch of new product enhances Twist's market position.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Twist Bioscience Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Sect…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$55.00 – $90.00 (median $80.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TWST Twist Bioscience Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Despite reiterating the goal of adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY26, the company reported an operating income loss of $45.9M in 2026-Q2. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
“Reiterating Q4 FY26 Adj EBITDA breakeven.”
“Reiterating Q4 FY26 Adj EBITDA breakeven.”
“To achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $(45.0) million to $(47.0) million for fiscal 2025.”
Management has raised revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 to a range of $442 million to $447 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $84.7M in 2024-Q4 to $110.7M in 2026-Q2, indicating progress towards the raised FY26 guidance of $442-$447M. The trajectory is delivering on the revenue growth target.
Management expects gross margin to exceed 52% for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. While management has consistently stated the goal of achieving a gross margin above 52% for FY26, the financials do not provide specific margin data to verify progress. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
“Gross margin to be above 52% for fiscal 2026.”
“Gross margin to be above 52% for fiscal 2026.”
Other Events. Pursuant to Stock Purchase Agreements entered into with certain investors on February 11, 2026 (the “Stock Purchase Agreements”), Twist Bioscience Corporation (the “Company” or “Twist”) will issue up to an aggregate of 632,328 shares (the “Shares”) of its common stock, par value $0.00001 per share (the “Common Stock”). Of the Shares, the Company will issue up to 324,558 shares of Common Stock to Invenra Inc. (“Invenra”) and pay $5 million in cash in consideration for a license a…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 2, 2026, Twist Bioscience Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, Twist Bioscience Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary, unaudited revenue results for the first quarter ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The Company’s revenue expectations included in this Current Report on Form 8-K are preliminary and unaudited and ar…
“Revenue guidance raised to $442-$447M.”
“Revenue guidance raised to $435-$440M.”
“Total revenue in the range of $425 million to $435 million.”
“Gross margin to be above 52% for fiscal 2026.”