Reading AVTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVTR free→Reading AVTR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVTR free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.71 AVTR trades at 1× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $28 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $7.00–$9.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 66% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.04x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.19 → $0.19 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 10 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -23.8% above current price.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$419.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,250.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue drops more than -4%, it shows ongoing problems with stability.
Confirms:Q2 organic net sales decline worse than -4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 organic net sales decline less than -4% or show growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVTR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Avantor, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$7.00 – $9.00 (median $7.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVTR Avantor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving top line growth by competing vigorously in the marketplace.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Continue to focus on segment integration activities to enhance operational efficiency.
Management aims to maintain stable revenue levels despite market challenges.
Why it matters: New leaders may help the segment grow and improve operations.
Confirms:Look for sales growth in Bioscience & Medtech under Ludovic Brellier in two quarters.
Disproves:Sales growth in Bioscience & Medtech stays flat or drops with new leaders.
Why it matters: The new CFO may change how the company handles its finances.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a new CFO with relevant experience before June 24, 2026.
Confirms the other:No announcement of a new CFO by June 24, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 17, 2026, Avantor, Inc. (the “Company”) informed Benoit Gourdier, the Company’s Executive Vice President, Bioscience and Medtech Products, that he would be transitioning to a new role supporting the Company’s segment integration activities, after which it is expected that he would depart the Company no later than December 31, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 26, 2026, Mr. R. Brent Jones notified Avantor, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) to join a company outside the life sciences industry. While a final departure date has not been set, Mr. Jones’ employment agreement requires him to provide 90 days’ not…
above, which also announced a realignment of the Company’s reportable business segments. The Company will hold a conference call to discuss these developments and its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 at 8:00 a.m. ET on February 11, 2026. Effective in the first quarter of 2026, the Company is realigning its business units into two reportable segments: VWR Distribution & Services and Bioscience & Medtech Products. To assist investors in understanding the effect…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 17, 2025, Avantor, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K announcing the election of Simon Dingemans as a director of the Company effective January 2, 2026. The prior report did not include the committees of the Board of Directors that Mr. Dingemans was named to because the Board had not determined on which committees o…