Natera Inc (NTRA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-30
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put NTRA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Life Sciences Tools & Services: structurally weak cohort (structural / late-cycle), so the cyclical early-warning is suppressed.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 38% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskNatera’s thesis rests on rising Signatera test adoption supporting sustained revenue growth. Revenue grew 37.7% year over year in Q2 FY2026, when GAAP earnings were inline. Its 23× sales multiple compares with 5× for peers and 17× its history. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the premium. Management running behind on a stated commitment is the specific thesis risk. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 20%. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. NTRA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering NTRA (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for NTRA in the last 4 months.
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Compare NTRA with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Life Sciences Tools & Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put NTRA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase test volume and adoption
Japan approval boosts test volume and adoption significantly.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $414.30
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $414.30.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.

Regulatory win boosts confidence in revenue growth.

Advances: Increase test volume and adoption
Record Signatera volumes indicate increased test adoption.

Rising guidance suggests improved revenue outlook.

New trial collaboration could support adoption, though commercial impact remains uncertain.

Advances: Increase test volume and adoption
Reported oncology milestones and product launches support adoption and growth objectives.
Advances: Increase annual revenue guidance
Higher 2026 guidance is a direct positive catalyst for revenue growth expectations.
Advances: Increase annual revenue guidance
Earnings beat supports revenue growth expectations.
