Reading ILMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ILMN free→Reading ILMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ILMN free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ILMN is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether ILMN can maintain its earnings momentum and how sector trends evolve. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $166.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $167 ILMN trades at 33× p/e, in line with its 29× p/e peer median. Our $152 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $122–$180. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 10% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.22 → $1.23 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 11 cut, 16 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$358.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,566.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 10.4 points (from 76.7 to 66.3).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in rules could affect sales and operations in a key market.
Confirms:The company gets good news that eases rules in China.
Disproves:The company has new rules or delays in its work in China.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Analyst upgrade reflects positive outlook on clinical demand.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Illumina, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$122.00 – $180.00 (median $155.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ILMN Illumina, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Initiate a new share repurchase program for up to $1.5 billion of common stock.
Focus on increasing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Improve cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives and financial stability.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show the company's financial health and performance. This is important for investor feelings.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: An update to revenue growth guidance could signal changes in demand or market conditions.
Confirms:Management raises revenue growth guidance above the current range of 4%-6%.
Disproves:Management lowers revenue growth guidance below the current range of 4%-6%.
Why it matters: This would indicate that growth is slowing and could impact future guidance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth prints below 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is getting more efficient. This helps investor confidence.
Confirms:Operating income increases year over year by more than 10% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income growth falls below 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the $1.5 billion buyback may show management's trust in the stock.
Confirms:Look for news about completed buybacks of at least $500 million next quarter.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow supports the company's ability to invest and return value to shareholders. It's a key measure of financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases year over year by more than 10% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations growth falls below 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback program shows confidence in the company's value and can support share price.
Confirms:The company finishes the $1.5 billion share buyback plan as planned.
Disproves:The company says there are delays or cuts to the share buyback plan.
Analyst upgrade reflects positive outlook on clinical demand.
Other Events. On April 28, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $1.5 billion of the Company’s common stock (the “2026 Repurchase Program”). The 2026 Repurchase Program is in addition to the $1.5 billion repurchase program authorized by the Board of Directors in August 2024, under which approximately $314 million of repurchase capacity remained as of April 29, 2026. Table of Contents
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On April 2, 2026, each of Drs. Frances Arnold, Robert S. Epstein and Gary S. Guthart notified the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Illumina, Inc. (the "Company") of her or his intention to retire as a director of the Company, effective as of May 21, 2026 (the date of the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders). The retirements of Drs.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Illumina, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Illumina, Inc. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on June 23, 2025, the Company entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement, dated as of June 22, 2025 (the “Purchase Agreement”), with Standard BioTools Inc. (“Standard BioTools”), a Delaware corporation, pursuant to which the Company agreed to acquire (the “Transaction”) from Standard BioTools…