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Billiontoone Inc (BLLN)
NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$123.40+2.53%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that BLLN's growth potential is strong. The company recently raised guidance, indicating confidence in its future. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. It trades at a high valuation compared to peers, which looks unjustified. If BLLN cuts guidance, it could face a credibility hit. Peer multiples imply a price about 644% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Diagnostics & Research
- Market cap
- $5.54B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-10-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $123.40. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$16.57
Range $16.02 – $18.39
vs price: +645% above
Method agreement : high · 3 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$50.77consensus
Range $50.77 – $50.77
vs price: +143% above
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$67.15consensus
Range $67.15 – $67.15
vs price: +84% above
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for BLLN right now, so treat our $16 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
127%
our forecast 59%
Our fair value
$15.92
range $15.76 – $16.08
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The price sits about 127% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 59% growth — well above our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
1366.4xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=3552).
84th pctl · Health Care
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +28.9% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.19 → $0.24 (+28.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.8% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- #1
Increase 2026 revenue guidance to $450M-$465M
GrowthBilliontoone aims to achieve 48% to 52% revenue growth in 2026 by raising its full-year revenue guidance to $450 million to $465 million.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$339.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$851.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,081.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mild_favorable'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses. The confidence level changed from low to medium. The signal changed from none to mild favorable.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for 2026 revenue guidance raised to $450M-$465M
Why it matters: A raise in revenue guidance shows management's confidence in growth. This could boost investor sentiment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms revenue guidance for 2026 is raised to $450M-$465M.
Disproves:Revenue guidance remains unchanged or is lowered from $450M-$465M.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-201mo agoSeeking Alpha
Advances: Increase 2026 revenue guidance to $450M-$465M
Positive outlook supports revenue growth objective for 2026.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth to re-accelerate above 10%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TMO, DHR, and IDXX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting BLLN and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BLLN beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for BLLN and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If BLLN reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like TMO, DHR, and IDXX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping BLLN and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-298d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 23, 2026 , BillionToOne, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a lease (the “Lease”) with Whipple Road Portfolio, LLC (the “Landlord”), pursuant to which the Company will lease approximately 62,659 square feet of office and laboratory space at 3260 Whipple Road, Union City, CA 94587. The leased space is intended to provide additional laboratory capacity to support anticipated growth in test volumes over the next several years, as total test volu…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.