Reading MEDP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MEDP free→Reading MEDP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MEDP free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady and capital-friendly. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The stock hinges on guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like TMO, DHR, and IDXX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $461.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $468 MEDP trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 29× p/e peer median. Our $472 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $400–$500. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.08 → $3.96 (-3.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$277.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,661.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would show slower revenue growth. It may hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth comes in below 8.9% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 12.8% compared to Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MEDP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Executive Vice President, Operations — Brad W. Hansman: Brad W. Hansman was promoted to Executive Vice President, Operations.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$400.00 – $500.00 (median $477.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-24
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MEDP Medpace | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | elevated |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through backlog conversion and new business awards.
Continue to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Maintain focus on growing net income through strategic initiatives and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: A decline would show higher costs. It could hurt profit expectations.
Confirms:EBITDA margin falls below 21% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:EBITDA margin remains above 22% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better growth in operating income shows better cost management. It also means more efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income grew by over 40% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth remains below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The new President's plans may affect Medpace's growth and operations.
Confirms one read:The new President announced strategic plans or changes.
Confirms the other:The new President did not announce any major changes or plans.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may raise worries about profits and strategy.
Confirms:Net income growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop would indicate weakening demand and could hurt future revenue.
Confirms:Net new business awards fall below $600 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net new business awards exceed $700 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A quick appointment could help leadership. This may improve investor confidence.
Confirms:A new President is appointed by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:No new President is appointed by the end of Q3 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 21, 2026, Jesse Geiger notified the Company of his intent to resign as President and that he will retire from the Company effective May 31, 2026. This departure is not the result of any disagreement with the Company regarding its operations, policies, or practices. Effective on Mr. Geiger’s resignation date, the Company’s Chief Executive O…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release was posted on the Company’s internet website and is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Current Report on Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, Item 2.02, inclu…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release was posted on the Company’s internet website and is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Current Report on Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release was posted on the Company’s internet website and is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Current Report on Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, Item 2.02, including the pre…