Reading GH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GH free→Reading GH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GH free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, GH is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 122% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $127.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $130, GH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 18× p/s (4.5× the 4× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~128% near-term growth vs our ~37% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $57 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $110–$185. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 128% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 37%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.43x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.39 → $-0.39 (-0.6% / 30d). 7 raised, 6 cut, 17 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$186.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$457.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,298.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Guardant Health, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$110.00 – $185.00 (median $135.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GH Guardant Health, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Guardant Health aims for full year 2026 revenue growth of 32% to 34% compared to 2025.
Guardant Health aims to maintain a non-GAAP gross margin of 64% to 65% for the full year 2026.
Guardant Health aims to reduce its free cash flow burn to between $185 million and $195 million in 2025.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 27, 2026, Guardant Health, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the resignation of Craig Eagle, M.D., the Company’s Chief Medical Officer, to be effective as of May 8, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the unde…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Guardant Health, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions . On January 11, 2026, Guardant Health, Inc. (the “Company”) announced certain preliminary unaudited financial information for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On November 4, 2025, Guardant Health, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Jefferies LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the public offering of 3,833,332 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.00001 per share (the “common stock”), at a pu…