Guardant Health, Inc. (GH)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$169.08+3.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Guardant Health, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	369.29M
EPS	—	-0.731
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.34B–$1.36B	1.36B
Screening revenue	$218M–$230M	—
EPS	—	-3.247
Free cash flow	$195M–$205M	—
Gross margin	64%–65%non-GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$1.08B–$1.1Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.84B
EPS	—	-2.122

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce free cash flow burn to $185-$195 million in 2026	Free cash flow burn should shrink to $185-$195 million in 2026.	Under Pressure	FCF burn exceeds $200 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain non-GAAP gross margin of 64% to 65% in 2026	It plans to keep gross margin near 64% to 65%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 62% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin was 66% in 2026-Q1 and 67% in 2026-Q2, consistent with the 64%-65% full year guidance. The margin trajectory is stable and slightly above target, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 32% to 34% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Guardant Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 32% to 34% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 30% in FY26	Revenue growth: 44.33% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 32% to 34% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202644.332322 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e7f3e6e-80c2-4a3a-b6de-9dacc865235c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $203.5 million in 2025-Q1 to $335.0 million in 2026-Q2 (44% growth). Full year 2026 revenue guidance was raised from $1.30-$1.32 billion (32%-34% growth) in 2026-Q1 to $1.34-$1.36 billion (36%-38% growth) in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering and accelerating. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.12

$-1.88 → $-2.12 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.84B

$1.73B → $1.84B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.88	$1,727,610,529	11 / 18
2026-07-25	$-1.88	$1,727,610,529	11 / 18
2026-07-26	$-0.43	$1,715,362,060	18 / 23
2026-07-27	$-1.88	$1,727,610,529	12 / 18
2026-07-28	$-1.88	$1,727,610,529	12 / 18
2026-07-29	$-0.43	$1,715,362,060	18 / 23
2026-07-30	$-1.88	$1,727,614,877	12 / 18
2026-07-31	$-0.40	$1,715,362,060	17 / 23
2026-08-01	$-1.88	$1,732,097,703	11 / 18
2026-08-02	$-0.44	$1,800,870,890	18 / 24
2026-08-03	$-0.44	$1,800,870,890	18 / 24
2026-08-04	$-0.44	$1,800,870,890	18 / 24
2026-08-05	$-0.45	$1,813,615,440	18 / 24
2026-08-06	$-0.45	$1,813,615,440	18 / 24
2026-08-07	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-08	$-0.45	$1,828,707,100	18 / 24
2026-08-09	$-0.45	$1,828,707,100	18 / 24
2026-08-10	$-0.45	$1,828,707,100	18 / 24
2026-08-12	$-0.45	$1,828,707,100	18 / 24
2026-08-13	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-14	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-15	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-16	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-17	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-18	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-19	$-1.96	$1,794,955,167	12 / 18
2026-08-20	$-1.93	$1,831,253,564	12 / 18
2026-08-21	$-1.93	$1,831,253,564	12 / 18
2026-08-22	$-1.93	$1,831,253,564	12 / 18
2026-08-23	$-1.93	$1,831,253,564	12 / 18
2026-08-24	$-1.93	$1,831,253,564	12 / 18
2026-08-25	$-1.93	$1,831,174,668	12 / 18
2026-08-26	$-1.93	$1,831,192,059	12 / 18
2026-08-27	$-1.93	$1,831,192,059	12 / 18
2026-08-28	$-1.93	$1,831,192,059	12 / 18
2026-08-29	$-1.93	$1,831,192,059	12 / 18
2026-08-30	$-1.93	$1,831,185,551	12 / 18
2026-08-31	$-1.93	$1,831,185,551	12 / 18
2026-09-01	$-1.93	$1,831,185,551	12 / 18
2026-09-02	$-1.93	$1,831,185,551	12 / 18
2026-09-03	$-1.93	$1,834,446,268	12 / 18
2026-09-04	$-1.93	$1,834,446,268	12 / 18
2026-09-05	$-1.93	$1,834,446,268	12 / 18
2026-09-06	$-1.93	$1,834,446,268	12 / 18
2026-09-07	$-1.93	$1,834,446,268	12 / 18
2026-09-08	$-1.93	$1,834,446,268	12 / 18
2026-09-09	$-1.91	$1,837,102,175	12 / 18
2026-09-10	$-1.91	$1,837,960,351	12 / 19
2026-09-11	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	12 / 19
2026-09-12	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-13	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-14	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-15	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-16	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-17	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-18	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-19	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-20	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-21	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-22	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-23	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-24	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-25	$-1.91	$1,838,486,339	13 / 20
2026-09-26	$-1.91	$1,838,479,735	13 / 20
2026-09-27	$-1.91	$1,838,479,735	13 / 20
2026-09-28	$-1.91	$1,838,479,735	13 / 20
2026-09-29	$-1.91	$1,838,479,735	13 / 20
2026-09-30	$-1.91	$1,837,666,390	13 / 19
2026-10-01	$-1.91	$1,837,666,390	12 / 19
2026-10-02	$-1.93	$1,835,270,557	12 / 19
2026-10-03	$-2.03	$1,835,270,557	12 / 19
2026-10-04	$-2.03	$1,835,270,557	12 / 19
2026-10-05	$-2.03	$1,835,270,557	12 / 19
2026-10-06	$-2.03	$1,833,270,557	12 / 19
2026-10-07	$-2.03	$1,833,270,557	12 / 19
2026-10-08	$-2.03	$1,832,957,545	12 / 19
2026-10-09	$-2.03	$1,832,957,545	12 / 19
2026-10-10	$-2.04	$1,835,205,935	12 / 19
2026-10-11	$-2.04	$1,835,205,935	12 / 19
2026-10-12	$-2.04	$1,835,205,935	12 / 19
2026-10-13	$-2.04	$1,835,786,813	12 / 19
2026-10-14	$-2.03	$1,837,566,908	12 / 19
2026-10-15	$-2.03	$1,837,566,908	12 / 19
2026-10-16	$-2.13	$1,837,565,231	12 / 19
2026-10-17	$-2.13	$1,837,565,231	12 / 19
2026-10-18	$-2.13	$1,837,565,231	12 / 19
2026-10-19	$-2.13	$1,837,565,231	12 / 19
2026-10-20	$-2.13	$1,837,565,606	12 / 19
2026-10-21	$-2.13	$1,837,556,898	12 / 19
2026-10-22	$-2.13	$1,837,556,898	12 / 19
2026-10-23	$-2.13	$1,838,984,188	12 / 19
2026-10-24	$-2.12	$1,838,109,847	13 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	2	1
2026-06-01	24	1	1
2026-07-01	24	0	2
2026-08-01	24	0	1
2026-09-01	26	0	1
2026-10-01	26	0	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Aug 4

$185.00 → $200.00+8.1%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 31

$200.00 → $220.00+10.0%

GuggenheimOct 1 · prior Jul 16

$190.00 → $200.00+5.3%

$0$121.00$242.00

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce free cash flow burn to $185-$195 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain non-GAAP gross margin of 64% to 65% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 32% to 34% revenue growth in 2026Revenue growth: 44.33%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Guardant Health, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GH is a high-growth, loss-making healthcare business with elevated risk, rather than an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is still developing: management is delivering strong growth, but recent financial performance has been weak and the latest quarter missed.

What's priced into Guardant Health, Inc.

The evidence tags expectations as justified, with low fragility, while GH trades at a sizable premium to peers. The valuation model has low confidence and points to optionality, meaning some value depends on future opportunities; the negative expectations gap suggests the market may be assuming more than the near-term fundamentals support.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been strong and management raised its 2026 growth guidance, while gross margins have stayed above the stated full-year range. Free cash flow remains negative, improvement is limited, and the recent earnings miss adds execution risk despite the earlier earnings beat. A stronger healthcare-sector backdrop is supportive, but weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names.

What Guardant Health, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on GH sustaining its raised growth outlook while keeping margins steady and reducing cash burn. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while continued earnings strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.