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Track TMO free→Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
NYSEHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$472.92-0.17%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although TMO is performing above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include potential guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact TMO's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Diagnostics & Research
- Market cap
- $174.42B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-09
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $472.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$522.90consensus
Range $486.07 – $645.49
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$658.40consensus
Range $591.21 – $838.95
vs price: -28% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $474 TMO trades at 20× p/e, below its 29× p/e peer median. Our $523 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $490–$639. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.5x
peer 28.7x · own history 22.6x
Premium
0.7x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-9%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$523.13
range $487.01 – $668.43
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
92nd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
37th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish21 analysts, 83% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $5.72 → $5.71 (-0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 12 cut, 21 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$254.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,138.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for organic revenue growth trends in Q2
Why it matters: Organic growth trends will indicate the strength of Thermo Fisher's core business.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 organic revenue growth exceeds 1% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 organic revenue growth falls below 1% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TMO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DHR, IDXX, and A keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting TMO and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TMO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for TMO and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If TMO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like DHR, IDXX, and A start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping TMO and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-231mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, the Registrant announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this report and exhibits hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") o…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.