Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-15

$690.00-0.93%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Thermo Fisher Scientific’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

27.41 → 27.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Continue share buyback program	A supporting condition in Thermo Fisher Scientific's published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing buyback announcements and execution.	Intact	No buyback program announced or executed in next year	Buyback program active (Feb 2026) vs ongoing target TMO announced a share buyback program in Feb 2026, alongside strong Q2 earnings and new product launches. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase cash from operations to at least $1.2B quarterly	Cash from operations rose from $723 million to $1.192 billion in one year.	Intact	Quarterly cash from operations falls below $1 billion	Cash from operations: $2.125B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.2 billion quarterly cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20262,125,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS near $25 in FY26	Profit margins stay solid with EPS near $25 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $23 next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annually	A primary condition in Thermo Fisher Scientific's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year	Revenue growth: 10.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202610.49286 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f348f9ba-7110-4d85-8fc5-609c26cdb57c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$27.49

$27.26 → $27.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$50.35B

$50.32B → $50.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$27.26	$50,320,590,570	26 / 25
2026-07-25	$27.31	$50,260,723,996	15 / 20
2026-07-26	$27.43	$50,259,072,700	26 / 24
2026-07-27	$27.38	$50,277,451,482	15 / 20
2026-07-28	$27.38	$50,277,451,482	15 / 20
2026-07-29	$27.38	$50,277,451,482	15 / 20
2026-07-30	$27.49	$50,304,286,130	27 / 25
2026-07-31	$27.40	$50,322,781,140	16 / 20
2026-08-01	$27.40	$50,322,781,140	16 / 20
2026-08-02	$27.51	$50,323,327,540	27 / 25
2026-08-03	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-04	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-05	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-06	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-08	$27.51	$50,323,327,540	27 / 25
2026-08-09	$27.51	$50,323,327,540	27 / 25
2026-08-10	$27.51	$50,323,327,540	27 / 25
2026-08-12	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-13	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-14	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-15	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-16	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-17	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-18	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-19	$27.40	$50,308,768,842	16 / 20
2026-08-20	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-21	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-22	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-23	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-24	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-25	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-26	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-27	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-28	$27.42	$50,312,475,470	16 / 20
2026-08-29	$27.42	$50,312,464,470	16 / 20
2026-08-30	$27.42	$50,312,464,470	16 / 20
2026-08-31	$27.42	$50,312,464,470	16 / 20
2026-09-01	$27.42	$50,312,464,470	16 / 20
2026-09-02	$27.40	$50,296,460,892	16 / 20
2026-09-03	$27.40	$50,296,460,892	16 / 20
2026-09-04	$27.40	$50,322,004,422	16 / 20
2026-09-05	$27.40	$50,322,004,422	16 / 20
2026-09-06	$27.40	$50,322,004,422	16 / 20
2026-09-07	$27.40	$50,322,004,422	16 / 20
2026-09-08	$27.40	$50,322,004,422	16 / 20
2026-09-09	$27.40	$50,322,004,422	16 / 20
2026-09-10	$27.40	$50,322,004,422	16 / 20
2026-09-11	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-12	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-13	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-14	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-15	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-16	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-17	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-18	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-19	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-20	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-21	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-22	$27.41	$50,330,126,972	16 / 20
2026-09-23	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-09-24	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-09-25	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-09-26	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-09-27	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-09-28	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-09-29	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-09-30	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-10-01	$27.42	$50,339,129,492	16 / 20
2026-10-02	$27.42	$50,327,176,554	16 / 20
2026-10-03	$27.42	$50,327,169,252	16 / 20
2026-10-04	$27.42	$50,327,169,252	16 / 20
2026-10-05	$27.42	$50,327,169,252	16 / 20
2026-10-06	$27.42	$50,327,169,252	16 / 20
2026-10-07	$27.43	$50,332,252,585	16 / 20
2026-10-08	$27.44	$50,332,252,585	16 / 20
2026-10-09	$27.45	$50,347,102,404	16 / 20
2026-10-10	$27.45	$50,347,102,404	16 / 20
2026-10-11	$27.45	$50,347,102,404	16 / 20
2026-10-12	$27.45	$50,347,102,404	16 / 20
2026-10-13	$27.45	$50,349,098,191	16 / 20
2026-10-14	$27.45	$50,349,098,191	16 / 20
2026-10-15	$27.49	$50,349,648,650	16 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	24	3	0
2026-06-01	24	6	0
2026-07-01	24	7	0
2026-08-01	22	6	1
2026-09-01	24	5	1
2026-10-01	23	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 24

$580.00 → $740.00+27.6%

GuggenheimOct 15

$740.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Jul 24

$650.00 → $730.00+12.3%

BarclaysOct 7

$750.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankSep 25

$720.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$412.50$825.00

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash from operations to at least $1.2B quarterlyCash from operations: $2.125B
Maintain EPS near $25 in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annuallyRevenue growth: 10.49%

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Thermo Fisher Scientific outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and product innovation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to strategic priorities.

What's priced into Thermo Fisher Scientific

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectation gap. TMO is seen as cheap relative to its competitors, suggesting that the market does not fully reflect its growth potential.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by successful acquisitions and disciplined capital allocation. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent industry misses, although TMO has a low probability of missing its targets.

What Thermo Fisher Scientific hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on strategic initiatives. Additionally, sector performance and economic indicators, such as job reports, will be crucial in shaping TMO's trajectory.