Reading GRAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRAL free→Reading GRAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRAL free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with GRAL compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $59.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $60, GRAL's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 13× p/s (3.4× the 4× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $37 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $54–$113. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 60% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.74x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-2.90 → $-2.41 (+16.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -9.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$322.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$729.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,292.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GRAL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers In connection with Dr. Joshua Ofman’s appointment as the Chief Executive Officer of GRAIL, Inc. (the “Company”), on June 1, 2026, the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”) approved an amended and restated offer letter (the “Amended Offer Letter”) and authorized and directed the Company to enter into such Amended Offer Letter with Dr. Ofman, wit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$54.00 – $113.00 (median $60.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GRAL GRAIL, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | expensive | high |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding partnerships in digital health and integrating into health systems.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $43.6M in 2025-Q4 to $40.8M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in expanding partnerships. Despite recurring focus, substantive delivery remains narrow.
“We remain on track for continued commercial growth in 2026 with new and expanding partnerships in digital health.”
“We anticipate completing our PMA submission for Galleri to the FDA in the first quarter of 2026.”
Target revenue growth of 22-32% for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue decreased from $43.6M in 2025-Q4 to $40.8M in 2026-Q1, showing a decline rather than the targeted growth. The trajectory is not yet delivering on the stated growth target.
Anticipate completing PMA submission for Galleri to the FDA in early 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. There is no specific update on the completion of the PMA submission for Galleri in the current quarter. The trajectory remains unclear without further details on progress.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate completing our PMA submission for Galleri to the FDA in the first quarter of 2026.”
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto are intended to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing, the information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibits shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or a…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto are intended to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing, the information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibits shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or a…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto are intended to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing, the information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or aft…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto are intended to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing, the information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibits shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or a…
“2026 guidance: 22-32% growth.”