GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$132.55+4.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GRAIL, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	51.16M
EPS	—	-2.37
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	180.82M
EPS	—	-9.456
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	227.22M
EPS	—	-10.176

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful CEO transition and execution	A supporting condition in GRAIL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable or improving execution under CEO Dr. Joshua Ofman.	Improving	CEO fails to deliver strategic progress or growth	Qualitative: FDA panel support + 4 consecutive earnings beats FDA advisory committee supported Galleri test; company reported four consecutive earnings beats since early 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
FDA approval and regulatory clarity	A primary condition in GRAIL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Clear path to PMA submission and approval in 2026.	Improving	FDA delays or rejects PMA submission	FDA panel vote positive (qualitative) FDA panel backed the cancer test, triggering stock surge and analyst upgrades. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth of 22-32% in 2026	A primary condition in GRAIL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 22-32% growth in 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 22% in FY26	Revenue growth: 25.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 22-32% growth in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202625.723047 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a673a114-5d6c-4e61-85b2-4fa70d429f27. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenue grew 26% year-over-year to $44.7M in 2026-Q2 and 28% to $40.8M in 2026-Q1, consistent with management's 2026 guidance of 22-32% growth. The trajectory matches management's stated revenue growth target and is delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand partnerships in digital health and Asia	Partnerships with Samsung expand its market.	Intact	Partnerships fail to expand or integrate as planned	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$-10.62 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.23B

$0.22B → $0.23B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$223,630,030	3 / 9
2026-08-01	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$223,630,030	3 / 9
2026-08-03	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$-10.62	$223,492,038	5 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$225,328,395	4 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$221,153,400	3 / 8
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$221,153,400	3 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$225,328,395	4 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$225,328,395	4 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$226,817,350	3 / 9
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$225,328,395	4 / 7
2026-08-15	$-10.65	$225,328,395	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$-10.65	$225,328,395	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$-10.65	$225,328,395	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$-10.65	$225,328,395	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$-10.65	$225,328,395	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$-10.63	$226,828,462	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$-10.20	$226,733,654	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$-10.20	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-09-21	$-10.20	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-09-22	$-10.19	$226,753,267	5 / 8
2026-09-23	$-10.19	$226,753,267	5 / 8
2026-09-24	$-10.19	$226,753,267	5 / 8
2026-09-25	$-10.19	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-09-26	$-10.19	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-09-27	$-10.19	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-09-28	$-10.19	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-09-29	$-10.19	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-09-30	$-10.19	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-10-01	$-10.19	$226,752,594	5 / 8
2026-10-02	$-10.19	$226,616,231	5 / 8
2026-10-03	$-10.20	$226,616,231	5 / 8
2026-10-04	$-10.20	$226,616,231	5 / 8
2026-10-05	$-10.20	$226,616,231	5 / 8
2026-10-06	$-10.20	$226,616,231	5 / 8
2026-10-07	$-10.20	$226,616,231	5 / 8
2026-10-08	$-10.21	$226,675,486	5 / 8
2026-10-09	$-10.21	$226,675,486	5 / 8
2026-10-10	$-10.21	$226,675,486	5 / 8
2026-10-11	$-10.21	$226,675,486	5 / 8
2026-10-12	$-10.21	$226,675,486	5 / 8
2026-10-13	$-10.22	$226,675,486	5 / 8
2026-10-14	$-10.27	$226,952,913	5 / 8
2026-10-15	$-10.27	$226,952,913	5 / 8
2026-10-16	$-10.27	$226,952,913	5 / 8
2026-10-17	$-10.27	$226,952,913	5 / 8
2026-10-18	$-10.27	$226,952,913	5 / 8
2026-10-19	$-10.27	$226,952,913	5 / 8
2026-10-20	$-10.27	$226,953,586	5 / 8
2026-10-21	$-10.27	$226,943,822	5 / 8
2026-10-22	$-10.27	$226,943,822	5 / 8
2026-10-23	$-10.18	$227,219,688	5 / 8
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$227,219,688	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	4
2026-06-01	4	5
2026-07-01	4	5
2026-08-01	4	5
2026-09-01	5	6
2026-10-01	5	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12

$120.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 2 · prior Sep 17

$84.00 → $175.00+108.3%

Canaccord GenuitySep 28

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 25 · prior Jul 15

$65.00 → $100.00+53.8%

$0$96.25$192.50

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve revenue growth of 22-32% in 2026Revenue growth: 25.72%
Expand partnerships in digital health and AsiaQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GRAIL, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth story, not a proven durable compounder, because it is loss-making and its longer-term case depends on commercial adoption and regulatory progress. The thesis is on watch: Galleri is growing quickly, while recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and risk is elevated.

What's priced into GRAIL, Inc.

GRAL is valued at a 7.25% premium to peers, and the valuation is tagged as stretched. The model points to a modest expectations gap, but confidence is low, so it is unclear how much growth and regulatory optionality the market already assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track with its 2026 revenue-growth goal, and Galleri volume and revenue have grown strongly. The FDA submission is complete, with advisory committee review expected in fall 2026, though progress on this priority is mixed. Recent results have been weak relative to the industry cohort, and a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening could add pressure to the business outlook.

What GRAIL, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued Galleri growth, the development of commercial partnerships, and progress through FDA review. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers such as TMO, DHR, and NTRA could support sector momentum.