Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$269.42+0.01%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Illumina, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.08 → 6.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	1.22B
EPS	—	1.536
Annual ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	4.62B
EPS	—	5.354
Annual ending 2027-12-28
Revenue	—	4.91B
EPS	—	6.099

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $1.5B share repurchase program	Share buybacks of $1.5B show disciplined capital use.	Intact	Repurchase program execution stalls or is canceled	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board authorized an additional $1.5 billion share repurchase program in 2026-Q1. No specific repurchase amounts reported in financials, but the authorization was reiterated and remains active. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated capital allocation focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow growth to at least $251M quarterly	The company generates strong free cash flow, rising from $208M to $251M in recent quarters.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $230M quarterly	Free cash flow: $161M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Free cash flow >= $251M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026161,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations declined from $321M in 2025-Q4 to $201M in 2026-Q2, and free cash flow declined from $267M to $162M over the same period. Despite the stated priority, cash flow metrics show a declining trajectory in the most recent quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating margin near 23.4% in 2026	A primary condition in Illumina, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~23.4% operating margin.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 22.5% in FY26	Operating margin: 21.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~23.4% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202621.138913 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2232954-bb07-491d-9e5a-f3ee4bbc9189. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP operating margin improved from 17.4% in 2025-Q4 to 21.1% in 2026-Q2, while non-GAAP operating margin guidance for 2026 is 23.4%-23.6%, slightly up from 23.1% in 2025. Operating income rose from $202M in 2025-Q4 to $245M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering progress on margin improvement and operating income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth at or above 6.6% annually	A primary condition in Illumina, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.6% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.44% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20269.442871 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2232954-bb07-491d-9e5a-f3ee4bbc9189. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition of SomaLogic was completed by 2025-Q4, expanding the multiomics portfolio. Management highlights ongoing expansion of multiomics capabilities and strong demand for NovaSeq X. The trajectory shows progress in integration and portfolio expansion, though no specific revenue or margin impact is quantified. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.10

$5.92 → $6.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.91B

$4.83B → $4.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.92	$4,829,594,206	12 / 13
2026-07-25	$5.92	$4,829,594,206	12 / 13
2026-07-26	$5.92	$4,829,594,206	12 / 13
2026-07-27	$5.92	$4,829,594,206	12 / 13
2026-07-28	$5.92	$4,829,594,206	12 / 13
2026-07-29	$5.92	$4,829,594,206	12 / 13
2026-07-30	$5.92	$4,829,594,206	12 / 13
2026-07-31	$5.92	$4,833,594,206	12 / 13
2026-08-01	$5.92	$4,833,594,206	12 / 13
2026-08-02	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-03	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-05	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-06	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-07	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-08	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-09	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-10	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-12	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-13	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-14	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-15	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-16	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-17	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-18	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-19	$6.01	$4,876,967,521	12 / 13
2026-08-20	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-21	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-22	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-23	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-24	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-25	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-26	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-27	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-28	$6.07	$4,904,081,647	12 / 13
2026-08-29	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-08-30	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-08-31	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-01	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-02	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-03	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-04	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-05	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-06	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-07	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-08	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-09	$6.07	$4,904,096,276	12 / 13
2026-09-10	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-11	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-12	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-13	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-14	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-15	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-16	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-17	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-18	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-19	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-20	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-21	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-22	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-23	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-24	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-25	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-26	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-09-30	$6.08	$4,910,191,577	12 / 14
2026-10-01	$6.09	$4,911,413,800	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$6.08	$4,911,413,800	12 / 14
2026-10-03	$6.08	$4,911,413,800	12 / 14
2026-10-04	$6.08	$4,911,413,800	12 / 14
2026-10-05	$6.08	$4,911,413,800	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$6.08	$4,911,419,355	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$6.09	$4,911,419,355	12 / 14
2026-10-08	$6.09	$4,911,794,230	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$6.10	$4,914,662,619	12 / 14
2026-10-10	$6.10	$4,914,662,619	12 / 14
2026-10-11	$6.10	$4,914,662,619	12 / 14
2026-10-12	$6.10	$4,914,662,619	12 / 14
2026-10-13	$6.10	$4,914,662,619	12 / 14
2026-10-14	$6.10	$4,914,684,841	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$6.10	$4,914,748,939	12 / 14
2026-10-16	$6.10	$4,914,748,939	12 / 14
2026-10-17	$6.10	$4,914,748,939	12 / 14
2026-10-18	$6.10	$4,914,748,939	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$6.10	$4,914,748,939	12 / 14
2026-10-20	$6.10	$4,914,747,134	12 / 14
2026-10-21	$6.10	$4,914,754,495	12 / 14
2026-10-22	$6.10	$4,914,754,495	12 / 14
2026-10-23	$6.10	$4,914,754,495	12 / 14
2026-10-24	$6.10	$4,914,754,495	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	7	4
2026-06-01	12	5	4
2026-07-01	11	5	4
2026-08-01	11	6	4
2026-09-01	11	6	5
2026-10-01	11	6	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 23

$275.00New observation · no comparable prior

Canaccord GenuityOct 19 · prior Aug 3

$205.00 → $300.00+46.3%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 31

$160.00 → $200.00+25.0%

GuggenheimOct 1 · prior Jul 31

$226.00 → $305.00+35.0%

Leerink PartnersSep 29 · prior Jul 17

$210.00 → $300.00+42.9%

Piper SandlerSep 28

$305.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$167.75$335.50

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $1.5B share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow growth to at least $251M quarterlyPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 23.4% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth at or above 6.6% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Illumina, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a healthcare growth business with a mild favorable shift in recent signals, rather than a clear turnaround or steady income story. The long-term thesis is intact, but loss-making earnings quality and volatile management temper the recent strong financial performance.

What's priced into Illumina, Inc.

ILMN is expensive versus peers, with a 1.46 premium, and the evidence points to a meaningful expectations gap. The valuation signal is described as unjustified, though fragility is low because the snapshot does not show a broader mix of expensive valuation, weak performance, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, operating income and margins have improved, and 2026 margin guidance is slightly above 2025; management has kept those priorities on track. Cash from operations and free cash flow declined between 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q2, so cash generation remains a concern; the near-term miss risk is low, but the company has a history of a deep miss. The recent M&A agreement and related financial obligation add developments to monitor, but the evidence gives little detail on their effects.

What Illumina, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued margin and operating income progress alongside stronger cash generation. A reversal and guidance cut after the recent raise would damage credibility, while weakening jobs data could pressure cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector peers could support sector momentum.