Avantor (AVTR)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.29+0.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Avantor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.88 → 0.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.68B
EPS	—	0.224
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.59B
EPS	—	0.814
Free cash flow	$500M–$550M	—
Organic revenue growth	-2.5%–-0.5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.74B
EPS	—	0.879

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS growth to analyst estimates	It beat earnings in Q1 2026 with EPS of $0.17, above estimates.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.79 in FY26 or $0.85 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.79 in FY26 and $0.85 in FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.06 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d08d021f-8ce8-4f08-b0aa-7100900de552. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful operational improvements under new leadership	Avantor is improving its business with new leadership focused on cost and efficiency.	Improving	No measurable operational improvements or worsening costs	Qualitative: Revival program facing margin pressure vs target of cost control New transformation officer appointed; earnings beat reported; Revival program faces persistent margin pressure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income from recent declines	A primary condition in Avantor's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $100M.	Improving	Operating income falls below $100M in FY26	Operating income: $121.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $100M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026121,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d08d021f-8ce8-4f08-b0aa-7100900de552. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income declined slightly from $128.8M in 2025-Q2 to $121.8M in 2026-Q2 despite restructuring efforts. Management continues to focus on profitability improvements, but financials show limited progress in operating income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain or grow revenue above flat levels	A primary condition in Avantor's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Revenue growth: 0.53% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.528692 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d08d021f-8ce8-4f08-b0aa-7100900de552. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1,581.4M in 2026-Q1 to $1,692.3M in 2026-Q2, with organic revenue growth improving from -2.5% to +0.5% in updated 2026 guidance. Management's focus on top line growth is delivering positive revenue trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.88

$0.85 → $0.88 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.74B

$6.64B → $6.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.85	$6,636,910,840	17 / 16
2026-07-25	$0.85	$6,636,910,840	17 / 16
2026-07-26	$0.85	$6,636,910,840	17 / 16
2026-07-27	$0.85	$6,636,910,840	17 / 16
2026-07-28	$0.85	$6,636,910,840	17 / 16
2026-07-29	$0.85	$6,636,910,840	17 / 16
2026-07-30	$0.85	$6,636,910,840	17 / 16
2026-07-31	$0.88	$6,739,074,040	15 / 14
2026-08-01	$0.88	$6,738,150,349	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-03	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-04	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-05	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-06	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-07	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-09	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-11	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-12	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-13	$0.88	$6,749,715,770	16 / 15
2026-08-14	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$0.88	$6,749,692,509	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$0.88	$6,749,429,559	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-08-31	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-01	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-02	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-03	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-04	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$0.88	$6,749,456,945	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-13	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-14	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-15	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-16	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-17	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-18	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-19	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-20	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-21	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-22	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-23	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-24	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-25	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-26	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-27	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-28	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-29	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 13
2026-09-30	$0.88	$6,748,837,589	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$0.88	$6,743,473,428	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$0.88	$6,743,473,428	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$0.88	$6,743,473,428	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$0.88	$6,743,473,428	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$0.88	$6,743,473,428	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$0.88	$6,745,340,095	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$0.88	$6,745,340,095	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$0.88	$6,745,340,095	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$0.88	$6,744,953,428	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$0.88	$6,743,258,818	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$0.88	$6,743,258,818	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$0.88	$6,743,258,818	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$0.88	$6,743,258,818	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$0.88	$6,743,258,818	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$0.88	$6,743,258,818	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$0.88	$6,743,901,569	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$0.88	$6,743,901,569	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$0.88	$6,743,901,569	9 / 12
2026-10-19	$0.88	$6,743,901,569	9 / 12
2026-10-20	$0.88	$6,743,901,569	9 / 12
2026-10-21	$0.88	$6,743,901,569	9 / 12
2026-10-22	$0.88	$6,743,901,569	9 / 12
2026-10-23	$0.88	$6,739,226,791	9 / 12
2026-10-24	$0.88	$6,739,226,791	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	11	2
2026-06-01	3	11	3
2026-07-01	3	12	3
2026-08-01	3	12	3
2026-09-01	3	13	1
2026-10-01	2	13	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS growth to analyst estimatesDiluted EPS: $0.06 per share
Improve operating income from recent declinesOperating income: $121.8M
Sustain or grow revenue above flat levelsRevenue growth: 0.53%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Avantor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a recovery-oriented healthcare business with improving recent performance, rather than a proven steady compounder. The multi-year view is intact, but still depends on sustained growth and management execution.

What's priced into Avantor

The evidence describes AVTR as cheap versus peers, while also showing it trades at a premium to peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but model confidence is low and the expectations gap is slightly negative.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show stronger revenue, with organic growth improving from a decline to modest growth in updated guidance. Debt repayment supports the balance sheet, while customer-experience efforts remain a work in progress; recent CFO and president transitions add uncertainty. The next guidance update and weakening jobs data are key near-term risks.

What Avantor hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth continuing, debt reduction progressing, and the Revival program improving customer experience. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakness could pressure the business outlook, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.