Twist Bioscience Corp. (TWST)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$139.92+3.28%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Twist Bioscience Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	126.39M
EPS	—	-0.378
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$123M–$124M	—
Gross margin	52%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	548.6M
EPS	—	-1.311
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	645.84M
EPS	—	-0.873

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY26	Management aims to break even on adjusted EBITDA by Q4 FY26.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA remains negative after Q4 FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin above 52% in FY26	Gross margin is expected above 52% for FY26.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 50% in FY26	Gross margin: 52.76% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > 52%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202652.759005 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin improved from 51.6% in 2026-Q2 to 52.8% in 2026-Q3, aligning with management's guidance to maintain above 52% for fiscal 2026. The trajectory shows delivering on margin improvement goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue of $442M to $447M in FY26	A primary condition in Twist Bioscience Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $442 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $442 million in FY26	Revenue: $118.376M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $442 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026118,376,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 127fa7fe-f7c5-46dc-aa47-ddee85b64504. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$-0.87

$-0.88 → $-0.87 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$0.65B

$0.64B → $0.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	$-0.88	$639,361,728	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.88	$639,361,728	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.98	$639,824,228	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.98	$639,824,228	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.98	$639,824,228	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.98	$641,824,228	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.98	$641,824,228	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.88	$645,820,971	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$-0.88	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.88	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.88	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.88	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.87	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.87	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.87	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.87	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.87	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.87	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.87	$645,820,971	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.87	$645,843,194	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.87	$645,843,194	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.87	$645,843,194	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.87	$645,843,194	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.87	$645,843,194	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	2	0
2026-06-01	10	1	0
2026-07-01	10	2	0
2026-08-01	9	2	0
2026-09-01	9	3	1
2026-10-01	9	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Canaccord GenuityOct 12 · prior Jul 14

$120.00 → $205.00+70.8%

JefferiesOct 8

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jun 24

$95.00 → $215.00+126.3%

GuggenheimOct 1 · prior Jun 29

$107.00 → $212.00+98.1%

Leerink PartnersSep 29 · prior Sep 17

$160.00 → $190.00+18.8%

$0$118.25$236.50

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin above 52% in FY26Gross margin: 52.76%
Revenue of $442M to $447M in FY26Revenue: $118.376M

Next proof point

Nov 13, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Twist Bioscience Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented business with a still-unproven path to sustained profitability, rather than an established compounder. The thesis is on watch: the signal has improved from cautious to mixed, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Twist Bioscience Corp.

TWST is valued at a substantial premium to peers, with optionality, or potential future growth beyond current results, cited as the main driver. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the evidence supports; confidence in that valuation read is low, though no fragility gates have fired.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and gross margin progress are encouraging: management raised FY26 revenue guidance to $456-$457 million, and the latest gross margin was above 52%. Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed only slightly, leaving the Q4 FY26 breakeven goal at risk; a recent earnings miss and a high-miss-rate industry add near-term uncertainty.

What Twist Bioscience Corp. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether revenue growth and margins continue to improve enough to support the path to breakeven. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakness would add pressure, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, TWST has evidence of growth and margin progress, but its loss-making results and elevated execution risk keep the thesis unsettled. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.