Reading TPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPC free→Reading TPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPC free→
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $76.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 TPC trades at 19× p/e, below its 35× p/e peer median. Our $146 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 11.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.22 → $1.26 (+3.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$210.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$412.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,932.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the industrials sector. This would help TUTOR PERINI's performance as it operates within this space.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector returns to above 7%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TPC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On May 20, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Tutor Perini Corporation (the “Company”) unanimously approved the Tutor Perini Corporation Deferred Compensation Plan (the “Plan”). The Plan is intended to be an unfunded arrangement for eligible employees who are part of a select group of management or highly compensa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.90 to $5.30.
Emphasize generating cash from operating activities to support financial stability.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend per share to shareholders.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026 Tutor Perini Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for purpo…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 26, 2026 Tutor Perini Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, i…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 5, 2025 Tutor Perini Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On November 18, 2025, Tutor Perini Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per share payable on December 23, 2025, to all shareholders of record at the close of business on December 9, 2025, and authorized a $200 million share repurchase program. A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The informa…