TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION (TPC)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$88.08-1.61%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain 2026 EPS guidance of $4.90 to $5.30: FY26 EPS guidance $5.15-$5.45 vs $4.90 target.
Tutor Perini has strong contracts boosting backlog and revenue. It aims for $5.3 EPS in 2026. The company refinanced $400M debt to improve cash flow. It pays a steady $0.06 dividend per share.
Backlog is shrinking, risking future revenue growth. Cash from operations fell sharply. The recent guidance cut shows risks to earnings. The stock price dropped 6.2% in one day.
The price is about 57% below our fair value near $180. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth. We see risks from backlog and cash flow declines.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls significantly below $147 million
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.06
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.90 for FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's focus on key priorities.
The market seems to assume a justified valuation, but TPC is considered expensive compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully reflect the potential upside from management's guidance and performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with its priorities, including raising adjusted EPS guidance and generating robust operating cash flow. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though past performance shows some volatility.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support TPC's growth. Conversely, if they start to miss expectations, TPC may face downward pressure.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TPC's performance will depend on both its execution and the broader industrial sector's health. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The company affirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.90 to $5.30. Additionally, it increased its quarterly dividend by 50%.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.