Reading TOI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOI free→Reading TOI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOI free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If TOI cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.18 TOI trades at 1× p/s, in line with its 1× p/s peer median. Our $19 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 73% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 35%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.06 → $-0.07 (-4.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 64.3% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$736.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,979.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could help Oncology Institute do better.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TOI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of a Current Report on Form 8-K filed on November 6, 2025, regarding a cybersecurity incident affecting a software service provider (“Vendor”) utilized by the Company. At the time of the prior voluntary disclosure, the Vendor had indicated that investigation was still ongoing and it could not yet confirm any evidence that any patient personal information was compromised as a result of this incident. However, on May 20, 2026, Kroll, who is the third-party administrator for the Vendor, notified…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TOI Oncology Institute, Inc. (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2026 to be between $630 million and $650 million.
Management aims to achieve free cash flow between $(15) million and $5 million for 2026.
Management has reaffirmed its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to be between $0 million and $9 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, The Oncology Institute, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and certain other financial information. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 12, 2026, The Oncology Institute, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 and certain other financial information. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) Appointment of New Director Through action taken by Unanimous Written Consent, effective February 23, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of The Oncology Institute, Inc. (the “Company”) filled a vacancy on the Board by appointing Kimberly Tzoumakas to the Board. After conducting appropriate due diligence, the Nominating and Corporate Gov…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, The Oncology Institute, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reaffirming the Company’s 2025 financial guidance and providing the Company’s preliminary 2026 financial outlook and certain additional longer-term financial guidance. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished and…