Reading TLYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TLYS free→Reading TLYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TLYS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the company's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.15 TLYS trades at 0× p/s, below its 0× p/s peer median. Our $6.02 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.57x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.17 (+21.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -5.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$269.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$820.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,381.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit margins show better cost control and pricing power.
Confirms:Gross profit margins improve by more than 2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Disproves:Gross profit margins decline or improve by less than 2 percentage points.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TLYS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 10, 2026, World of Jeans & Tops, a California corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Tilly’s, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), as borrower, and the Company, as guarantor, entered into the Second Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amends the Credit Agreement (as amended, the “Agreement”), dated as of April 27, 2023, with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association. The Amendment, among other changes, extends t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2013-Q2, 2014-Q1, 2014-Q2, 2014-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TLYS Tilly's Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | high |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net sales to improve overall revenue performance.
Strive to achieve positive net income through improved financial performance.
Focus on improving gross profit margins to strengthen financial health.
Why it matters: Making a profit is key for Tilly's money health and future growth.
Confirms:Net income for the next quarter is reported as positive.
Disproves:Net income remains negative for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improving revenue is key for Tilly's to show growth progress. It affects investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding 3%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue declines year over year or growth stays below 3%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 3, 2026, Tilly's, Inc. (the "Company") issued an earnings press release for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") or otherwise subject to the liabi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As noted in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 11, 2026, Tilly's, Inc. (the "Company") issued an earnings press release for the fourth quarter and full year ended January 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") or otherwis…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On and effective March 10, 2026, the Company promoted Michael J. Cingolani, age 48, to serve as the Company’s Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer. Mr. Cingolani was previously serving as the Company’s Senior Vice President, General Merchandising Manager since November 8, 2024. Mr. Cingolani will receive an annual base salary of $5…