Tilly's Inc (TLYS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-14
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put TLYS beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Apparel Retail is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 301% growth a year, above the roughly 6% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskTilly's needs to sustain its recent sales growth to justify its current valuation. Revenue grew 8% year over year, and the latest quarter beat expectations. It trades at 77× P/E versus a peer median of 14×. The market is pricing in more growth than forecasted, indicating expectations look full. If Tilly's cuts guidance on the next call, that could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 170% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. TLYS is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 1 analyst currently covering TLYS (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare TLYS with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLYS Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Apparel Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put TLYS next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Improve revenue performance
Strong sales growth supports revenue performance objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Advances: Improve revenue performance
Strong sales growth supports revenue performance objective.

Advances: Improve revenue performance
Earnings and revenues exceeding estimates indicate strong growth.

Advances: Improve revenue performance
Assortment reset indicates improved revenue performance.

Threatens: Improve revenue performance
Store closures may hinder revenue growth objectives.

Advances: Improve revenue performance
Beating forecasts indicates improved revenue performance.