Reading TAP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TAP free→
Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - BrewersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· 1–3 mo
$40.59-0.73%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, TAP is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Beverages - Brewers
- Market cap
- $7.80B
- Employees
- 16,200
- IPO date
- 1994-03-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $40.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$103.53consensus
Range $99.95 – $115.36
vs price: -61% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$78.51consensus
Range $68.00 – $93.25
vs price: -48% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $41 TAP trades at 7× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $104 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $41–$58. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.1x
peer 17.5x · own history 9.8x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
-61%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$104.00
range $100.40 – $108.59
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 61% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
25th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.83x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish15 analysts, 29% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.53 → $1.53 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,860.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 4, 2026
Why it matters: Q2 results will show if the company can keep its revenue steady during challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows net sales growth over 2% compared to Q1.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows net sales decline compared to Q1.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TAP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like STZ and SAM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting TAP and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TAP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If TAP beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If TAP cuts guidance on the next call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like STZ and SAM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping TAP and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2721d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. U.S. Offering On May 27, 2026, Molson Coors Beverage Company (the “ Company ”) issued $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of U.S. dollar-denominated senior notes, consisting of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 4.900% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ 2031 Notes ”) and $1 billion aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “ 2036 Notes ” and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “ U.S. Notes ”) pursuant to a previously annou…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.