Reading STZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STZ free→Reading STZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STZ free→NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - BrewersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while compared with sector peers, STZ is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If STZ cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $144.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for STZ right now, so treat our $196 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $155–$186. Not investment advice.
(median $175.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-04-10
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
26 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.72 → $3.72 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$114.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$267.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,650.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show how well the company is managing costs and sales. It impacts investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share were higher than what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share were lower than what analysts expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STZ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Constellation Brands, Inc. (“Constellation” or the “Company”), was expanded from eleven (11) to twelve (12) members. On that date, the Board filled the additional Board seat by electing E. Morgan Flatley to serve as a member of the Board effective immediately. Ms. Flatley, age 52, has served…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STZ Constellation Brands | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WMT Walmart | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain a disciplined and balanced capital allocation approach to strengthen the business long-term.
Achieve a free cash flow target of $1.6 to $1.7 billion for the fiscal year ending 2027.
Maintain an operating cash flow target of $2.5 to $2.6 billion for the fiscal year ending 2026.
Why it matters: This offering is part of Constellation's capital strategy. It will impact debt management and cash flow.
Confirms one read:The successful closing of the $500 million senior notes on May 6, 2026.
Confirms the other:The offering fails to close due to unmet conditions or market issues.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would mean issues with consumer demand. It would also show problems with inventory management.
Confirms:Beer Business net sales decline worse than -4% for Q4 2026.
Disproves:Beer Business net sales decline of -4% or better for Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong cash flow. This helps with spending and paying shareholders.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $1.6 billion for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $1.6 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: How management spends money affects growth and debt. This is important for stability.
Confirms:Management shares a new plan for investment or reducing debt.
Disproves:Management keeps the same strategy or faces no problems.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong performance. It helps with investment and stability.
Confirms:Operating cash flow reported at or above $2.5 billion for the fiscal year.
Disproves:Operating cash flow reported below $2.5 billion for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show how much management trusts cash flow and finances.
Confirms one read:Dividend declared at or above $1.03 per share for the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Dividend declared below $1.03 per share for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Information on plans can change how investors feel and affect stock prices.
Confirms one read:They will announce the date and agenda for the Investor Day.
Confirms the other:No announcement regarding the Investor Day by the end of Fall 2026.
Other Events. On May 6, 2026, the Company and Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, as trustee (the “Trustee”), entered into Supplemental Indenture No. 37 (the “Supplemental Indenture”), dated as of May 6, 2026, which supplemented the Indenture, dated as of April 17, 2012 (the “Base Indenture” and together with the Supplemental Indenture and the other prior supplemental indentures thereto, the “Indenture”). Under the Indenture, the Company issued $500.0 million aggregate principal amount o…
Other Events. On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, PNC Capital Markets LLC, and Truist Securities, Inc., for themselves and as representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), for the sale by the Company of $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2031 for a public offering price of 99.943% of the pr…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 8, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. (“Constellation” or the “Company”), a Delaware corporation, issued a news release (the “release”) announcing its financial condition and results of operations as of and for the fiscal year and fourth fiscal quarter ended February 28, 2026. A copy of the release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The projections constituting the guidance included in the release invo…
Other Events. On April 8, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $1.03 per issued and outstanding share of the Company’s Class A Common Stock and $0.93 per issued and outstanding share of the Company’s Class 1 Convertible Common Stock, in each case payable on May 14, 2026, to stockholders of record of each respective class as of the close of business on April 29, 2026.