Reading STRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRT free→Reading STRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STRT free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $79 STRT trades at 11× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $103 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 23% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.11 → $1.36 (+22.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$210.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$433.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,131.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report gives insight into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could boost confidence in Strattec's market.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or increase less than 0.1% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 28, 2026, Strattec Security Corporation (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a new share repurchase program to purchase up to $40.0 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock. This share repurchase program replaces the Company’s previous share repurchase program, which had been initiated in 1996 and was terminated in connection with the authorization of the new program. Under the share repurchase program, the Company may…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STRT Strattec Security Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Strattec aims to maintain a gross margin target of 18% to 20% over the next few years.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit was $22.66M in 2026-Q3, showing limited progress towards the 18% to 20% margin target. The recurring focus on margin targets indicates persistent commitment, but substantive delivery remains narrow.
“Continuing to target 18% to 20% margins over next few years.”
“Long term goal remains 18% to 20% gross margin”
“Long term goal remains 18% to 20% gross margin”
Strattec expects a revenue decline of 3% to 4% year-over-year due to EV cancellations and lower production.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. Revenue was $137.63M in 2026-Q3, with management anticipating a 3% to 4% y/y decline due to EV cancellations. This reflects a challenging market environment, with limited progress in reversing the revenue trend.
Why it matters: This report impacts consumer confidence and spending. Strong employment data could lead to increased demand for Strattec's products.
Confirms one read:Unemployment rate drops below 4.5%.
Confirms the other:The unemployment rate is above 5%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 7, 2026, Strattec Security Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release (the “ Press Release ”) announcing results for the fiscal third quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Also on May 7, 2026, the Company first provided investors with a supplemental presentation regarding fiscal third quarter earnings and other current financial information, atta…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Effective as of April 30, 2026, ADAC-STRATTEC, LLC (“ADAC-STRATTEC”), a majority owned joint venture subsidiary of Strattec Security Corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with BMO Bank N.A. (the “New JV Credit Agreement”) that replaced ADAC-STRATTEC’s existing credit agreement, dated June 28, 2012, with BMO Bank N.A. (formerly BMO Harris Bank N.A.), as amended (the “Prior JV Credit Agreement”). The Co…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On February 5, 2026, Strattec Security Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release (the “ Press Release ”) announcing results for the fiscal second quarter ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Current Report on Form 8-K, the information in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On October 30, 2025, the Company issued a press release (the “ Press Release ”) announcing results for the fiscal first quarter ended September 28, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Also on October 30, 2025, the Company first provided investors with a supplemental presentation regarding fiscal first quarter earnings and other current financial information, attached as Exhibit 99.2 h…
“Expect Q4 FY26 revenue to be down 3% to 4% y/y reflecting EV cancellations.”