Strattec Security Corp. (STRT)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$61.01+0.89%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Strattec Security Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	130.12M
EPS	—	1.12
Annual ending 2027-06-28
Revenue	—	557.48M
EPS	—	4.875
Annual ending 2028-06-28
Revenue	—	575.53M
EPS	—	5.76

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute share buybacks up to $40 million	A supporting condition in Strattec Security Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is up to $40 million authorized buyback.	Intact	buyback program is canceled or materially reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow of at least $10 million	Free cash flow stays about $10 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $10 million next quarter	Free cash flow: $8.239M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $10 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 28, 20268,239,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin between 18% and 20%	A primary condition in Strattec Security Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 20%.	Broken	gross margin falls below 18% next quarter	Gross margin: 15.57% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 18% to 20%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 16, 202615.574964 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2c46dfc6-d661-4ec6-b922-4571a7b343ed. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters, management targets 18%-20% gross margin long term. Actual gross margin was 16.5% in fiscal 2026, below target. Despite cost actions and pricing, margin remains below target, indicating limited progress toward the stated margin goal. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Limit revenue decline to no more than 3% to 4% year-over-year	A primary condition in Strattec Security Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is no more than 3% to 4% decline YoY.	Under Pressure	revenue decline exceeds 4% YoY next quarter	Revenue: $151.827M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: no more than 3% to 4% decline YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 28, 2026151,827,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	1
2026-06-01	1	0
2026-07-01	1	0
2026-08-01	1	1
2026-09-01	1	1
2026-10-01	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute share buybacks up to $40 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Generate free cash flow of at least $10 millionFree cash flow: $8.239M
Maintain gross margin between 18% and 20%Published status: Broken
Limit revenue decline to no more than 3% to 4% year-over-yearPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Strattec Security Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a smaller-cap transformation story with elevated risk, rather than a steady compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management’s focus is consistent, but recent results remain mixed and below the industry cohort.

What's priced into Strattec Security Corp.

STRT is tagged as cheap versus peers, while the model shows an expectations gap below its benchmark. The valuation evidence suggests restrained expectations, but does not remove the business risks; no valuation fragility flags are present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings can be erratic: STRT missed in May and reported a beat in August, while the current earnings-miss risk is assessed as low. Over the multi-year thesis, transformation and cost work may support performance, but gross margin was 16.5% in fiscal 2026 against an 18% to 20% long-term goal, and EV-related cancellations and production changes continue to pressure sales.

What Strattec Security Corp. hinges on

The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, since a cut would signal added pressure. The multi-year view also depends on progress toward the margin goal and on whether sector peers continue to report strong results and guidance or begin to weaken.