Reading STGW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STGW free→Reading STGW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STGW free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, STGW is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples despite strong financials. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.59 STGW trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $9.75 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted 15.78x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.19 (-11.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$510.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,678.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show Stagwell's financial health and market position. This helps understand future performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth and better profits.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows ongoing losses and falling revenue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STGW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” Such information (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2017-Q3, 2018-Q2, 2018-Q3, 2019-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Advertising.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STGW Stagwell, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
OMC Omnicom Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TTD Trade Desk (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MGNI Magnite, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | high |
ZD Ziff Davis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Stagwell aims for total net revenue growth of 8% to 12% for the fiscal year 2026.
Stagwell targets adjusted EBITDA between $475 million and $525 million for 2026.
Stagwell aims for a free cash flow conversion rate between 50% and 60% for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth turns positive, it shows recovery in the Communication Services sector. This may help Stagwell do better.
Confirms:The sector shows positive revenue growth for the next quarter.
Disproves:The sector shows negative revenue growth for another quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” Such information (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On January 30, 2026, Stagwell Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an agreement (the “Agreement”) to purchase substantially all of the assets of a digital advertising company (the “Acquiree Company”) from the owners of the Acquiree Company (the “Sellers”). Pursuant to the Agreement, at closing of the transaction on January 30, 2026, the Company issued 863,624 shares of Class A common stock of the Company (“Stagwell Stock”) in payment of $5.625 million of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” Such information (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 31, 2025 , Stagwell Inc. (the “Company”) issued an earnings release reporting its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025. A copy of this earnings release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Following the issuance of this earnings release, the Company will host an earnings call in which its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 will be discussed. The investor presentation to be used f…