Reading MCHX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCHX free→Reading MCHX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCHX free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect MCHX's performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated volatile grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=200).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.02. 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$413.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,881.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the sector starts growing again, it could help Marchex's performance. This would signal a potential recovery.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows a positive change after being negative.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative. It may drop even more.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MCHX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Marchex, Inc. (“Marchex” or the "Company") is issuing an Earnings Release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). The full text of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Advertising.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCHX Marchex Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | — | high |
OMC Omnicom Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TTD Trade Desk (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MGNI Magnite, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | high |
ZD Ziff Davis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Marchex aims to achieve Adjusted EBITDA margins of 10% or more by combining revenue growth with lower operating expenses.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the goal of achieving 10% Adjusted EBITDA margins, financials show a net income loss of $1.72M in 2026-Q1 and $2.32M in 2025-Q4. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
“Adjusted EBITDA margins of 10% or more anticipated with revenue growth and lower expenses.”
“Combination of revenue growth and lower expenses can lead to Adjusted EBITDA margins of 10% or more.”
Marchex plans to achieve sequential quarterly revenue increases throughout 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $11.65M in 2025-Q2 to $10.62M in 2026-Q1, contrary to the goal of sequential increases. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Marchex plans to close the Archenia transaction by the third quarter of 2026 to enhance EBITDA.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The Archenia transaction is anticipated to enhance EBITDA, but current financials show a net income loss of $1.72M in 2026-Q1. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
“Archenia transaction expected to close by 2026-Q3, enhancing EBITDA.”
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Marchex, Inc. ("Marchex" or the "Company") has entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement (“SPA”) dated May 8, 2026 to acquire 100% of the outstanding shares of capital stock of Archenia, Inc. (the “Transaction”) from the Archenia stockholders (the “Sellers”) for a base consideration consisting of an aggregate of $10 million in convertible promissory notes to be issued to the Sellers (the “Notes”), with interest at 6%, payable in three equal tranches o…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 29, 2026, Marchex, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Sublease Agreement (the “Sublease”) with RentSpree, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“RentSpree”), with respect to the sublease of the Company’s office space located at 1200 5 th Avenue, Suite 1300, Seattle, Washington. The term of the Sublease is May 1, 2026 through September 28, 2027 (the “Term”) and is for all 12,300 square feet. Under the Sublease, RentSpree is…
Material Impairments. The information set forth under
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Marchex, Inc. (the “Company”) previously reported in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Form 10-K”) that the Company had determined that a settlement of the civil action captioned Chris Barnard and Sinc McEvenue v. Marchex, Inc., C.A. No. 1:22-cv-01382-RGA , pending in the United States District Court for the District of Delaware, was probable and accordingly recorded an expense accrual in its 2025 Conso…
“Sequential quarterly revenue increases anticipated during 2026.”
“Marchex anticipates sequential quarterly revenue increases in 2026.”