Reading NCMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NCMI free→Reading NCMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NCMI free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance changes and trends among sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.57 NCMI trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $3.69 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.41x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.09 (-112.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$142.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$413.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,645.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NCMI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Advertising.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NCMI National CineMedia, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | fair | elevated |
OMC Omnicom Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TTD Trade Desk (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MGNI Magnite, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | high |
ZD Ziff Davis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target revenue growth for Q2 2026 with a guidance range of $57 million to $63 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Revenue guidance for 2026-Q2 is $57M to $63M. Previous quarter revenue was $34M, indicating a significant growth target. The trajectory will depend on achieving this guidance.
“NCM LLC expects to earn total revenue of $57.0 million to $63.0 million.”
Aim for positive Adjusted OIBDA in the range of $1.0 million to $5.0 million for Q2 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Adjusted OIBDA guidance for 2026-Q2 is $1M to $5M. Previous quarter's operating income was -$26.9M, indicating a significant improvement target. The trajectory will depend on achieving this guidance.
“Adjusted OIBDA in the range of $1.0 million to $5.0 million.”
Continue to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share remains at $0.03. Despite fluctuating net income, the company has maintained this dividend level, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 22, 2025, National CineMedia, Inc. (the “Company”) and Thomas F. Lesinski, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, agreed to extend the term of Mr. Lesinski’s employment agreement (the “Lesinski Amended Employment Agreement”) with the Company to December 31, 2028, with an effective date of January 1, 2026. The Lesinski Amended Employment…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The President - Sales, Marketing and Partnerships of National CineMedia, Inc. (the “Company”), Catherine Sullivan, will step down from her role as of November 13, 2025 and depart the Company on December 1, 2025 following an elimination of the position of President – Sales, Marketing and Partnerships. Ms. Sullivan’s departure from the Company will b…
“Dividend per share remains at $0.03.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.03.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.03.”