Reading ADV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADV free→Reading ADV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADV free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples but has weak financials. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 ADV trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $212 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 82% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.51x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated volatile grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=200).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $1.51. 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$347.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$925.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,441.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows larger losses. There is no improvement in finances.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Advantage Solutions Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. On May 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Company will host a conference call announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of man…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q1, 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Advertising.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADV Advantage Solutions, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
OMC Omnicom Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TTD Trade Desk (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MGNI Magnite, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | high |
ZD Ziff Davis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management continues to reaffirm guidance for 2026 revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and cash flow.
Management aims for $250 to $275 million in unlevered free cash flow for fiscal year 2026.
Management has set a capital expenditure guidance range of $50 to $60 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for the sector may mean a recovery for Advantage Solutions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows a positive change after being negative.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative, which means it is still declining.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Advantage Solutions Inc. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 8, 2025, Dean General transitioned into a newly established role as Chief Industry Development Officer of the Company. In connection with this transition, effective March 26, 2026, Mr. Gen…
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. To the extent required by
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. On March 11, 2026 (the “Settlement Date”), Advantage Sales & Marketing Inc. (the “Company”), an indirect subsidiary of Advantage Solutions Inc. (the “Parent”), completed the Company’s previously announced offer (the “Exchange Offer”) to exchange any and all of its outstanding 6.50% Senior Secured Notes due 2028 (the “Existing Notes”) for a combination of Company’s newly issued 9.000% Senior Secured Notes due 2030 (the “New Notes”) and cash, and a rela…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, Advantage Solutions Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. On March 3, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Company will host a conference call announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended Dece…