Reading OMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OMC free→Reading OMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OMC free→NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the company is capital-friendly, indicating a focus on shareholder returns. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 OMC trades at 9× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $118 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $82–$146. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted 50.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.63 → $2.61 (-0.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 94.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$282.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,785.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This is a key target for 2026. Falling short may signal deeper issues.
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth is below 4%.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth meets or exceeds 4%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OMC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Omnicom Group Inc. ("Omnicom," the "Company," "we," "our" or "us") published an earnings release reporting its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein in its entirety.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$82.00 – $146.00 (median $86.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Advertising.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OMC Omnicom Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TTD Trade Desk (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MGNI Magnite, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | high |
ZD Ziff Davis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | elevated |
STGW Stagwell, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
30 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated volatile grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=200).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Omnicom aims to achieve a 4% revenue growth on a constant currency basis in 2026.
Omnicom is targeting $1.5 billion in cost reduction synergies over 30 months.
Omnicom plans to execute a $5.0 billion share buyback, including a $2.5 billion Accelerated Share Repurchase.
Why it matters: Finishing the acquisition shows Omnicom's plan to grow and improve.
Confirms:The acquisition will close in the second half of 2025 without delays.
Disproves:The deal has major regulatory issues or is delayed beyond 2025.
Why it matters: Finding cost savings is important. It helps improve margins and profits after the IPG deal.
Confirms:$1.5 billion in cost savings was achieved by year-end.
Disproves:Cost savings were less than $1 billion by year-end.
Why it matters: Ongoing lawsuits may impact how the company runs and its finances.
Confirms:News about new lawsuits may harm the company's operations or image.
Disproves:Lawsuits may end well and not harm operations.
Why it matters: Getting these synergies will make more money and support the acquisition plan.
Confirms:Management reports achieving at least $900 million in cost synergies by the end of 2026.
Disproves:Cost synergies are much lower than the $900 million goal by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show management's confidence. This can help increase shareholder value.
Confirms:There was a big announcement about the $5.0 billion share buyback.
Disproves:No updates or a delay in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Updates on the $5.0 billion share buyback will show how well capital is used.
Confirms:$5.0 billion share buyback is on track with at least $2.5 billion completed by year-end 2026.
Disproves:The share buyback program is delayed or cut below $2.5 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings growth will show if the company runs better after the deal.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings show at least 10% growth in adjusted EPS compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings decline or show less than 5% growth in adjusted EPS.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can affect finances and how investors feel. Bad results may raise costs.
Confirms:A good outcome from the lawsuit had no major financial impact.
Disproves:A bad lawsuit outcome led to big financial costs.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 28, 2026, Omnicom hosted an earnings call and posted on its website a related investor presentation in connection with publishing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. The information under Items 2.02 and 7.01 above (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. U.S. Dollar-Denominated Notes Offering On March 2, 2026, Omnicom Group Inc. (the “Company”) closed its public offering of $400 million aggregate principal amount of 4.200% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”), $700 million aggregate principal amount of 5.000% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”) and $600 million aggregate principal amount of 5.300% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes,” and together with the 2029 Notes and the 2033 Notes,…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Non-GAAP Financial Measures We present financial measures determined in accordance…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in