Reading MGNI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGNI free→Reading MGNI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGNI free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 108% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper with expected earnings growth. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 MGNI trades at 19× p/e — 1.6× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.48 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $16–$21. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 108% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated fragile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.26 (-0.8% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 36.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$225.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$584.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,777.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MGNI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Magnite, Inc., or the Company, issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$16.00 – $21.00 (median $20.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Advertising.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MGNI Magnite, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | high |
OMC Omnicom Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TTD Trade Desk (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ZD Ziff Davis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | elevated |
STGW Stagwell, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Raise Adjusted EBITDA margin to be at least 35.5% from greater than 35%.
Set guidance for Contribution ex-TAC attributable to DV+ to be between $87 million and $89 million.
Increase free cash flow growth to be in the mid 30% range from greater than 30%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 20, 2026, Magnite, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that David Day plans to retire as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Day entered into a transition agreement pursuant to which he will continue to serve as CFO until September 30, 2026. After such date, it is expected that he will remain employed as a non-executive advisor through Ma…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 7, 2026, Magnite, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Adam Soroca would cease serving as the Company’s Chief Product Officer, effective April 8, 2026. Mr. Soroca will remain employed with the Company as an advisor through May 15, 2026. In connection with his termination of employment, Mr. Soroca will be entitled to severance benefits in ac…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Magnite, Inc., or the Company, issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Magnite, Inc., or the Company, issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, a…