Magnite, Inc. (MGNI)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.89-1.04%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Magnite, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.34 → 1.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	220.4M
EPS	—	0.452
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	760.48M
EPS	—	1.134
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	843.37M
EPS	—	1.378

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 35.5%	Profit margin aims to rise to at least 35.5%.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 35.5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 26.6% in 2026-Q1 to 37% in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year 2026 margin expectations to at least 37% from prior 35.5%. The trajectory shows delivering improved profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Contribution ex-TAC attributable to DV+ $87M-$89M	A primary condition in Magnite, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $87M-$89M.	Intact	Contribution ex-TAC attributable to DV+ falls below $87M in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow growth in mid 30% range	Free cash flow growth targets the mid 30% range.	Improving	Free cash flow growth falls below 30% in FY26	Free cash flow growth: 7,112.26% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: mid 30% growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20267,112.262242 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow growth guidance was raised from mid 30% range in 2026-Q1 to high 40% range in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's increasing confidence in cash flow growth, showing delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.38

$1.24 → $1.38 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.84B

$0.82B → $0.84B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.24	$821,396,192	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$1.24	$821,396,192	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$1.24	$815,170,400	10 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.24	$821,434,038	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.24	$821,434,038	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.24	$816,160,400	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$1.24	$820,860,400	10 / 10
2026-08-07	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.28	$835,853,500	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.28	$835,853,500	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$1.28	$835,853,500	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.29	$838,146,500	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.29	$838,146,500	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.32	$834,416,538	8 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.34	$841,514,923	8 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.34	$841,487,808	8 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.34	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-04	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-05	$1.38	$841,647,038	8 / 7
2026-10-06	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-07	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-08	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-09	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-12	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.38	$843,339,346	8 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7
2026-10-24	$1.38	$843,366,462	8 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	1
2026-06-01	14	2
2026-07-01	13	2
2026-08-01	13	2
2026-09-01	13	2
2026-10-01	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 35.5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Contribution ex-TAC attributable to DV+ $87M-$89MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow growth in mid 30% rangeFree cash flow growth: 7,112.26%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Magnite, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MGNI is a growth-oriented advertising technology business, with recent strength in connected TV, or CTV, contribution and cash flow. Its long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile, industry risks are elevated, and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Magnite, Inc.

Valuation is expensive versus peers and has risen recently, while the model indicates the market’s expectations are demanding. The priced-in assessment calls those expectations unjustified, but valuation confidence is low, so the size of the expectations gap is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong growth: second-quarter contribution ex-TAC rose 17% year over year, CTV contribution rose 36%, and management raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to at least 37%. Free cash flow growth guidance also rose to the high 40% range, but guidance cuts remain a meaningful risk, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Magnite, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on continued growth in contribution ex-TAC and CTV, alongside sustained margin improvement and cash flow growth. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis; lower interest rates or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide support to the business backdrop.