Reading TSQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TSQ free→Reading TSQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TSQ free→NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, TSQ is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from TSQ and the performance of sector bellwethers like OMC, TTD, and MGNI. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.57, TSQ's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 41× p/e (3.4× the 12× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-9% near-term growth vs our ~-6% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $7.22 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.16x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.19 (-20.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $361.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean a turnaround in the declining sector. This might boost investor confidence in Townsquare Media.
Confirms:Townsquare Media reports positive revenue growth in the next earnings release on August 6, 2026.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative in the next earnings release.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TSQ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Townsquare Media Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the S…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Advertising.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TSQ Townsquare Media Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | low |
OMC Omnicom Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TTD Trade Desk (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MGNI Magnite, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | high |
ZD Ziff Davis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA between $87 million and $93 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 remains between $87 million and $93 million. However, the company reported an operating loss of $1.27 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards this target.
“Adjusted EBITDA is reaffirmed to be between $87 million and $93 million.”
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $87 million and $93 million.”
Management aims to achieve net revenue between $420 million and $440 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $96.78 million in 2026-Q1, down from $106.50 million in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows a decline, indicating challenges in meeting the full-year revenue target of $420 million to $440 million.
“Net revenue is reaffirmed to be between $420 million and $440 million.”
Management is committed to maintaining a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share was $0.20 in 2026-Q1, consistent with previous quarters. Despite financial challenges, the company has maintained its dividend commitment, indicating stability in capital allocation.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 16, 2026, Townsquare Media Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing operating results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 10, 2025, Townsquare Media Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, Townsquare Media Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing operating results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
“For the full year 2026, net revenue is expected to be between $420 million and $440 million.”
“For the full year 2025, net revenue is expected to be between $426 million and $430 million.”
“The company declared a dividend of $0.20 per share for the quarter.”
“The company declared a dividend of $0.20 per share for the quarter.”
“The company declared a dividend of $0.20 per share for the quarter.”
“The company declared a dividend of $0.20 per share for the quarter.”