Omnicom Group (OMC)

NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$80.56-0.20%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Omnicom Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.86 → 11.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Realize $1.5 billion cost synergies over 30 months	It targets $1.5 billion in cost savings.	Intact	Cost synergies progress stalls below 50% of target by FY26 end	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 4% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Omnicom Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth in 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 63.43% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY revenue growth in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202663.425142 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: de7e41a4-9df4-4f27-8132-64bc29f0d713. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execute $5.0 billion share buyback plan	The company plans a $5 billion share buyback.	Intact	Buyback falls below $3.5B executed by FY26 Q3	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.76

$12.26 → $11.76 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$25.02B

$25.29B → $25.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.26	$25,290,029,080	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$12.10	$25,434,175,199	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$12.25	$25,266,552,010	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$12.23	$25,266,485,460	11 / 10
2026-07-28	$12.23	$25,266,485,460	11 / 10
2026-07-29	$12.11	$25,402,503,299	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$12.06	$25,138,214,833	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$12.04	$25,118,352,277	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$12.04	$25,118,352,277	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$12.04	$25,102,854,190	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$12.03	$25,095,250,814	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$12.03	$25,095,250,814	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$12.04	$25,105,162,550	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$12.03	$25,095,250,814	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$12.04	$25,105,162,550	12 / 11
2026-08-09	$12.04	$25,105,162,550	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$12.04	$25,105,162,550	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$11.91	$25,068,733,480	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$11.82	$25,033,950,147	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$11.86	$25,033,513,268	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$11.87	$25,008,446,969	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$11.87	$25,008,446,969	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$11.87	$25,008,446,969	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$11.87	$25,008,446,969	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$11.87	$25,008,446,969	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$11.87	$25,008,446,969	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$11.87	$25,008,446,969	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$11.87	$25,010,613,635	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$11.87	$25,010,613,635	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$11.80	$25,018,863,635	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$11.80	$25,018,863,635	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$11.80	$25,018,863,635	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$11.80	$25,018,863,635	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$11.80	$25,018,863,635	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$11.80	$25,018,863,635	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$11.80	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$11.76	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$11.76	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$11.76	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$11.76	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$11.76	$25,016,542,635	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	4	1
2026-06-01	8	4	1
2026-07-01	8	4	1
2026-08-01	8	4	1
2026-09-01	8	4	1
2026-10-01	8	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 9

$88.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$48.40$96.80

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Realize $1.5 billion cost synergies over 30 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 4% revenue growth in 2026Revenue growth: 63.43%
Execute $5.0 billion share buyback planRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Omnicom Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on integration and operational excellence. The current thesis state is intact, supported by ongoing management priorities and cost synergies from the Interpublic acquisition.

What's priced into Omnicom Group

The market appears to price OMC as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some challenges are already accounted for. The valuation reflects a medium confidence level, suggesting that while there are concerns, the overall outlook is not overly pessimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show stable performance as management continues to focus on organic revenue growth and margin improvement. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, given the company's recent history in a high-miss-rate industry.

What Omnicom Group hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on integration synergies and maintain disciplined capital allocation. Additionally, external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.