Stagwell, Inc. (STGW)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.98-0.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Stagwell, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.23 → 1.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	920.52M
EPS	—	0.386
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.25B
EPS	$1.03–$1.17non-GAAP	1.11
EBITDA	$475M–$525Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	8%–12%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.33B
EPS	—	1.256

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $475M to $525M in 2026	It targets adjusted EBITDA between $475M and $525M.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below $460M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew from approximately $95 million in 2025-Q2 to $109 million in 2026-Q2, a 15% increase. Management reiterated full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $475 million to $525 million, showing consistent focus and delivery on this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve free cash flow conversion of 50% to 60% in 2026	The company plans free cash flow conversion of 50% to 60%.	Under Pressure	free cash flow conversion falls below 40% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reiterated free cash flow conversion guidance of 50% to 60% for 2026. Operating cash flow was negative $26 million in 2026-Q1 but positive $90 million in 2026-Q2, indicating progress toward the free cash flow conversion target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 8% to 12% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Stagwell, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 11.25% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202611.246035 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 36cbd7f9-02c5-4931-aa9a-07285bd97d25. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $706.8 million in 2025-Q2 to $786.3 million in 2026-Q2, an 11% increase year-over-year. Management reiterated full-year 2026 total net revenue growth guidance of 8% to 12%, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.26

$1.17 → $1.26 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$3.30B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.17	$3,302,503,670	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.17	$3,302,503,670	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$1.18	$3,302,503,670	8 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.18	$3,302,503,670	8 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.21	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$1.18	$3,302,503,670	8 / 6
2026-07-31	$1.18	$3,302,503,670	8 / 6
2026-08-01	$1.22	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$1.25	$3,318,479,000	8 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-06	$1.25	$3,318,479,000	8 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-09	$1.24	$3,320,907,570	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.24	$3,320,907,570	8 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-13	$1.24	$3,320,907,570	8 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$3,330,700,050	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$1.23	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$1.26	$3,333,475,500	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$1.26	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	6	2
2026-09-01	6	2
2026-10-01	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 5

$13.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.15$14.30

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $475M to $525M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve free cash flow conversion of 50% to 60% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve 8% to 12% revenue growth in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Stagwell, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk growth and execution thesis in advertising and communications, not a proven durable compounder, because the evidence still describes earnings quality as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with management on track on its stated 2026 priorities, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.

What's priced into Stagwell, Inc.

STGW is described as cheap versus peers, and its valuation score recently fell from 58.9 to 48.8. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, though the expectations gap is negative; the evidence does not give enough detail to say precisely what growth the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results show progress: second-quarter revenue rose 11% year over year and adjusted EBITDA rose 15%, while management reiterated its full-year growth and EBITDA ranges. Cash flow improved from negative operating cash flow in the first quarter to positive in the second, but the 2026 conversion goal remains ahead and earnings quality is still flagged as loss-making. A sector headwind and a high-miss-rate industry remain risks, even though the stated near-term miss watch is quiet.

What Stagwell, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on STGW delivering its 2026 revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow conversion goals. A reversal of its recently raised guidance would hurt management credibility, while interest-rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the business backdrop.