Reading SRE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SRE free→Reading SRE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SRE free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, SRE is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $91.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 SRE trades at 19× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $98 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $101–$118. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.01 → $1.02 (+0.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$80.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$192.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,265.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The base rate order could improve Oncor's financial strength and support future investments.
Confirms:Oncor shows accounting effects of the base rate order. This leads to better financial numbers.
Disproves:Oncor does not see good accounting results. It shows negative financial numbers.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SRE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing of Sempra, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements This report contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions about the future…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$101.00 – $118.00 (median $104.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-18
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SRE Sempra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | low |
NEE NextEra Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
D Dominion Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
XEL Xcel Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | low |
ED Consolidated Edison | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | low |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Sempra continues to affirm its full-year 2026 EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30.
Sempra continues to affirm its full-year 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70.
Sempra has issued a full-year 2030 EPS Outlook in the range of $6.70 to $7.50.
Why it matters: Earnings reports reveal financial health. They can influence stock price and investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better results than expected and confirms guidance.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows worse results than expected and lowers guidance.
Why it matters: Closing these deals could improve Sempra's money situation and growth chances.
Confirms:Sempra closes the deals with KKR and Ecogas. This increases its capital resources.
Disproves:Delays or problems in closing the deals may happen due to rules or market issues.
Why it matters: Confirming guidance shows trust in steady earnings and growth chances.
Confirms:Management affirms the full-year 2026 EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30.
Disproves:Management lowers the EPS guidance range. This shows possible earnings weakness.
Why it matters: Issuing a long-term EPS outlook can signal growth plans. It may attract long-term investors.
Confirms:Management will give an EPS outlook for the full year 2030 later.
Disproves:Management delays or cancels the issuance of the 2030 EPS Outlook.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can affect financial results. Updates may change stock performance.
Confirms:Management shares good news on the lawsuit that lowers possible costs.
Disproves:Management reports bad news in the lawsuit that raises possible costs.
Why it matters: Ongoing lawsuits can affect money stability and investor trust. It's key to watch.
Confirms:New updates on the lawsuits show good news for Sempra.
Disproves:Lawsuits can lead to a big financial penalty or bad ruling.
Why it matters: This decision will affect SDGE's profits and financial outlook.
Confirms one read:FERC makes a good decision on SDGE's TO6 case. It confirms a 10.28% profit rate.
Confirms the other:FERC denies or alters the settlement terms, leading to a lower return on equity.
Other Events. On June 9, 2026, Sempra (the “Company”) closed its public offering and sale of $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its Floating Rate Notes due 2028 (the “notes”). Proceeds to the Company (after deducting the underwriting discount but before deducting offering expenses payable by the Company estimated at approximately $1.7 million) from the sale of the notes were approximately $998.5 million. The offer and sale of the notes was registered under a prospectus supplement an…
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing of Sempra, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Southern California Gas Company (the “Company”), an indirect subsidiary of Sempra, entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BNP Paribas Securities Corp., CIBC World Markets Corp., Mizuho Securities USA LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as the representatives of the several underwriters named on Schedule I thereto (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters, severally and no…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing of Sempra, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. Forward-Looking Statements This report contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions about the future…