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Track D free→Dominion Energy (D)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· 1–3 mo
$68.18+0.40%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is low, with valuation appearing expensive. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If D cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Electric
- Market cap
- $59.73B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-03-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$70.64consensus
Range $64.46 – $73.03
vs price: -3% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$86.33consensus
Range $81.39 – $89.60
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $68 D trades at 20× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $70 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $65–$76. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.7x
peer 20.4x · own history 19.3x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-3%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$70.34
range $60.38 – $72.71
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
26th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
28th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish11 analysts, 13% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.86 → $0.85 (-1.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 3 maintained. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 43% of the last 7 guided quarters · -3.8% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$75.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$199.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $978.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for confirmation of 2026 EPS guidance
Why it matters: Affirming EPS guidance shows management's confidence in earnings growth. This can boost investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms 2026 EPS guidance of at least $3.00 per share.
Disproves:Management revises 2026 EPS guidance down below $2.80 per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for D yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for D and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting D and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If D raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-18), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If D cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-18), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping D and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0512d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, Dominion Energy, Inc. (the Company) entered into an underwriting agreement (the Underwriting Agreement) with Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., PNC Capital Markets LLC and U.S. Bancorp Investments, Inc., as Representatives for the underwriters named in the Underwriting Agreement, for the sale of $825,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 2026 Series A 5.35% Senior Notes due 2036 (Series A Senior Notes). The Series A Senio…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-9.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.