Reading ED? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ED free→
Consolidated Edison (ED)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$108.37+0.60%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is low, although the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. If ED cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Electric
- Market cap
- $39.71B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1998-03-27
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $108.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$124.81consensus
Range $114.59 – $151.98
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$163.97consensus
Range $151.60 – $169.69
vs price: -34% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $108 ED trades at 19× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $125 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $97–$118. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.1x
peer 20.5x · own history 18.8x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$125.27
range $115.01 – $148.49
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
87th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 30.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
95th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +4.6% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.72 → $0.76 (+4.6% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 16% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -3.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$170.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,038.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for New York State Public Service Commission to approve capital investment plans.
Why it matters: Approval lets Con Edison spend money on important projects for future growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Public announcement of approval for the three-year rate plan by the commission.
Disproves:Denial or delay of the capital investment plans by the commission.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ED yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ED and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting ED and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ED raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ED cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping ED and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-081mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 8, 2026, Consolidated Edison, Inc. (“Con Edison” or the “Company”) entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with Barclays Capital Inc., BNY Mellon Capital Markets, LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., CIBC World Markets Corp., Jefferies LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, ea…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.