Reading BKH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKH free→Reading BKH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKH free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The capital stance is capital unfriendly, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with the company trading below typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact BKH's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 BKH trades at 18× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $77 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.41 (-20.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$75.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$207.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,178.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance at $4.25 to $4.45 shows that the company is stable. It also shows growth potential.
Confirms:2026 adjusted EPS lands within the $4.25 to $4.45 range.
Disproves:2026 adjusted EPS falls below $4.25.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Rate increase may impact EPS guidance stability.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKH Black Hills Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
SRE Sempra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | low |
D Dominion Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
XEL Xcel Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the EPS guidance range of $4.25 to $4.45 for fiscal year 2026.
Maintain stability in operating income through disciplined financial management.
Increase cash generated from operating activities to support financial health.
contains: 1. Historical financial statements of NorthWestern filed in accordance with Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X, included as Exhibit 99.1, which are incorporated herein by reference; and 2. Pro forma financial information of Black Hills and NorthWestern on a combined basis in accordance with Article 11 of Regulation S-X giving effect to certain pro forma adjustments related to the pending merger transaction as if it were completed on January 1, 2025 as it relates to the pro forma combined c…
contains: 1. Historical financial statements of NorthWestern filed in accordance with Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X, included as Exhibit 99.1, which are incorporated herein by reference; 2. Pro forma financial information of Black Hills and NorthWestern on a combined basis in accordance with Article 11 of Regulation S-X giving effect to certain pro forma adjustments related to the pending merger transaction as if it were completed on January 1, 2025 as it relates to the pro forma combined conde…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On Feb. 4, 2026, Black Hills Corporation ("the Company") issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. A copy of the Company's presentation is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this report. This information is being furnished pursuant to
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The disclosure under