Reading PNW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PNW free→Reading PNW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PNW free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is low. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, PNW is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $103.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $103 PNW trades at 19× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $110 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $92–$108. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.50 → $1.46 (-2.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$82.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$156.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $843.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Pinnacle West meets its EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.75.
Confirms one read:Q2 EPS was above $4.75. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Q2 EPS was below $4.55. This shows potential issues.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PNW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 5, 2026, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (the “Company”) entered into the First Amendment (the “First Amendment”) to the Equity Distribution Agreement, dated November 8, 2024 (as amended by the First Amendment, the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with Barclays Capital Inc., BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Mizuho Securities USA LLC, MUFG Securities Americas Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, Truist Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as man…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$92.00 – $108.00 (median $105.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PNW Pinnacle West Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | low |
NEE NextEra Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
SRE Sempra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | low |
D Dominion Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
XEL Xcel Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its EPS guidance range of $4.55 to $4.75 for the fiscal year 2026.
The company targets a long-term EPS growth of 5%-7% based on the 2024 midpoint.
The company plans to invest in new gas generation projects with a capacity of up to 2 GWs.
The company plans to expand its transmission network with an investment exceeding $6 billion.
The company has entered into an amendment to its Equity Distribution Agreement for debt issuance.
Why it matters: EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.75 is key for growth. Changes could impact investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Management says EPS guidance is still $4.75 or higher.
Confirms the other:Management cuts EPS guidance to below $4.55.
Why it matters: Utilities sector growth impacts PNW's performance. A rebound could signal better times ahead.
Confirms:Utilities sector revenue growth speeds up to 5% or more.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down to below 3%.
Why it matters: If utility sector revenue growth speeds up, it could boost Pinnacle West's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down to below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Investing in new gas generation is important. It helps meet rising demand in Arizona.
Confirms:Announcement of progress on the new gas generation build of up to 2 GWs.
Disproves:There may be a delay or cancellation of the gas generation project.
Why it matters: A second earnings beat would boost investor trust in the company.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows results that beat analyst expectations by at least 5%.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
On May 4, 2026, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (“Pinnacle West”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
On February 25, 2026, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (the “Company” or “Pinnacle West”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fiscal quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 and its earnings outlook for 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation’s (“Pinnacle West”) T hird Amended and Restated Facility On February 18, 2026, Pinnacle West entered into a third amended and restated five-year unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Third Amended and Restated Facility”) among Pinnacle West, the Lenders party thereto, Barclays Bank PLC, as Agent and Issuing Bank, PNC Bank, National Association, as Co-Syndication Agent and Issuing Bank, Wells Fargo Bank, National…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 17, 2026, the Human Resources Committee (the “Committee”) of the Pinnacle West Board of Directors (the “Board”) approved the portion of the APS 2026 Annual Incentive Award Plan (the “APS Plan”) that provides an incentive award opportunity for Theodore N. Geisler, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pinnacle W…