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NorthWestern Energy (NWE)
NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$70.56-0.30%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact NWE's outlook. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Electric
- Market cap
- $4.37B
- Employees
- 1,667
- IPO date
- 2023-10-27
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$70.30consensus
Range $69.75 – $71.64
vs price: +0% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$80.99consensus
Range $80.20 – $81.89
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $71 NWE trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $71 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.3x
peer 19.0x · own history 18.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-0%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$70.91
range $69.66 – $71.36
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 0% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
84th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
68th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +26.0% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.53 (+26.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$219.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,131.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for confirmation of 2026 earnings guidance
Why it matters: Earnings guidance shows confidence in financial performance. This builds trust with investors.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms earnings guidance in the range of $3.68 to $3.83 per diluted share.
Disproves:Management lowers earnings guidance from the current range.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NWE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NWE and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting NWE and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NWE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-02), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If NWE cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-02), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping NWE and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 27, 2026, NorthWestern Corporation (" NW Corp "), a wholly owned subsidiary of NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., d/b/a NorthWestern Energy (Nasdaq: NWE) (“ NWE Group ”), entered into a $225 million secured term loan credit agreement (the “ Term Loan ”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (the " Administrative Agent "), and BOFA Securities, Inc., BMO Bank N.A., Keybank National Association, and U.S. Bank National Association, as…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.