NorthWestern Energy (NWE)

NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-23

$77.59+0.60%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NorthWestern Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.96 → 3.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	452.29M
EPS	—	1.206
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.74B
EPS	—	3.735
Eps growth	4%–6%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	3.967

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt levels to avoid pressure on capital allocation	A supporting condition in NorthWestern Energy's published investment case. The stated target is No material increase in debt beyond recent $225M term loan.	Under Pressure	Significant new debt issuance or off-balance sheet obligations beyond recent levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.67 in Q1 2026	The company raised its dividend to $0.67 per share in Q1 2026.	Intact	Dividend per share fails to increase or declines in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.67 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2b7f8cb5-aa28-4399-b5fe-dfad3f7b6d9d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain 2026 EPS guidance range of $3.68 to $3.83	NorthWestern Energy keeps its 2026 EPS guidance near $3.75 per share.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $3.68 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management has consistently affirmed the 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance range of $3.68 to $3.83 per diluted share. Actual diluted EPS was $0.40 in 2026-Q2, up from $0.35 in 2025-Q2, supporting the guidance. The trajectory matches management's affirmed guidance and long-term EPS growth targets of 4% to 6%. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 6% YoY	A supporting condition in NorthWestern Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% over next 4 quarters	Revenue growth: 14.56% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202614.556203 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2b7f8cb5-aa28-4399-b5fe-dfad3f7b6d9d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.97

$3.97 → $3.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.82B

$1.82B → $1.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.97	$1,820,214,250	8 / 6
2026-07-25	$3.97	$1,821,597,590	8 / 6
2026-07-26	$3.97	$1,821,597,590	8 / 6
2026-07-27	$3.97	$1,821,597,590	8 / 6
2026-07-28	$3.97	$1,821,597,590	8 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.97	$1,821,597,590	8 / 6
2026-07-30	$3.97	$1,821,597,590	8 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.97	$1,821,597,590	8 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	$3.97	$1,813,091,940	7 / 5
2026-08-04	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$3.96	$1,816,131,940	7 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.96	$1,816,131,940	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.96	$1,816,131,940	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.96	$1,816,131,940	7 / 5
2026-08-14	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.96	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$3.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$3.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$3.97	$1,817,638,295	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$3.97	$1,817,638,295	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$3.97	$1,817,652,740	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$3.97	$1,817,638,295	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$3.97	$1,817,638,295	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$3.97	$1,817,638,295	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$3.97	$1,817,638,295	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	3	1
2026-06-01	3	3	1
2026-07-01	3	4	1
2026-08-01	3	4	0
2026-09-01	3	4	0
2026-10-01	4	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 15

$85.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Apr 20

$75.00 → $70.00-6.7%

$0$46.75$93.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt levels to avoid pressure on capital allocationPublished status: Under Pressure
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.67 in Q1 2026Dividend per share: $0.67 per share
Maintain 2026 EPS guidance range of $3.68 to $3.83Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 6% YoYRevenue growth: 14.56%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NorthWestern Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NWE is a regulated utility with a measured growth thesis, rather than a rapid-growth story. The thesis is intact, with management on track to affirm 2026 guidance, while merger approval and capital plan execution remain important work in progress.

What's priced into NorthWestern Energy

The valuation evidence is mixed: NWE is described as cheap versus peers, yet its premium to peers is high and the overall value assessment is expensive. Expectations appear close to the current outlook, with a small expectations gap and no flagged fragility; the valuation score has also fallen substantially recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance, and second-quarter diluted EPS was higher than a year earlier. The multi-year plan calls for $3.2 billion of investment from 2026 through 2030 and targeted rate base growth of 4% to 6%, but sector conditions are a headwind and earnings surprises have been trending down.

What NorthWestern Energy hinges on

The near-term downside hinge is whether management reaffirms guidance on its next call; a cut would be a meaningful setback. The merger with Black Hills depends on completing the remaining Montana regulatory approval, while execution of the investment plan also matters. Fed rate cuts or continued strong results from major utility peers could support the sector backdrop.