NorthWestern Energy (NWE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-09
$70.57-1.69%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
NorthWestern Energy keeps its 2026 EPS guidance near $3.75 per share. The company raised its dividend to $0.67 per share in Q1 2026. Revenue grew 6% year-over-year in Q1 2026. The stock trades cheaper than peers with moderate risk.
EPS growth may stall given the soft guidance posture. The company has increased debt recently, which could pressure capital allocation. Dividend growth may slow if earnings weaken.
The price is about 2% above our fair value near $69. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth. We see valuation as justified but not overly cheap.
Breaks if: Significant new debt issuance or off-balance sheet obligations beyond recent levels
Breaks if: Dividend per share fails to increase or declines in 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a utility company with a focus on steady earnings and capital growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings performance and ongoing merger activities.
The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite the sector's challenges. There is a low expectations gap, suggesting that current performance aligns with what investors anticipate.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management affirming earnings guidance and progressing on capital investments. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings misses, although the probability is relatively low.
The thesis hinges on the successful completion of the merger with Black Hills and the ability to maintain earnings guidance. Additionally, broader market conditions, such as Federal Reserve rate changes and performance of sector peers, will be critical.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $3.68 for FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6% over next 4 quarters
The outlook for NWE over the next 1 to 3 years appears stable, but it faces sector headwinds and execution risks. Not investment advice.